Euroleague · resolved market
Euro Basket: Lithuania vs Germany
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x36c1b085d744d129d747da8c25e68dea6645b5f3a712aa169032d2a66107c8cd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Germanyof Lithuania, Germany
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Euroleagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,159
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,087
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,159 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Euroleague is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Euroleague | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2ef5…39edbacked Lithuania | 31c | 2,024$618 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$618.39 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Germany | 68c | 1,418$958 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460.34 | 91 | 36.3%33 W · 58 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa9…2491backed Germany | 76c | 1,191$905 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.64 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e94…6243backed Lithuania | 3c | 1,045$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.34 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4dbe…af34backed Germany | 67c | 999.98$670 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.99 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39ea…f75bbacked Germany | 70c | 712.17$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.17 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +79.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Lithuania | 33c | 700$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231 | 63 | 38.1%24 W · 39 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x501a…d46dbacked Lithuania | 22c | 630.65$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3606…9bd2backed Lithuania | 33c | 602.15$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.71 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked Lithuania | 30c | 600$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 57 | 24.6%14 W · 43 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…ff0ebacked Germany | 69c | 599.98$414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9375…1dbdbacked Germany | 71c | 500.42$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.42 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d23…d13dbacked Lithuania | 31c | 418.39$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36f8…4dc3backed Germany | 70c | 356.06$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.06 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b59…58e6backed Lithuania | 28c | 355.17$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b8f…ef1bbacked Germany | 76c | 349.99$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 75cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1620…f529backed Lithuania | 31c | 322.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +3.3wins | +0.19per pick | 22cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d1…2b9ebacked Germany | 70c | 320$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa97a…ff6ebacked Lithuania | 33c | 304.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a61…b560backed Lithuania | 20c | 260.24$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.21 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb78d…1d48backed Germany | 77c | 256.12$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.29 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Lithuania | 22c | 250$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -41%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…5e75backed Lithuania | 28c | 204.73$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.32 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Germany | 75c | 127.82$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.11 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c5…0166backed Lithuania | 14c | 100.39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0a1…6daebacked Lithuania | 33c | 90.91$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e71…7a6bbacked Lithuania | 33c | 75.76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +3.3wins | +0.13per pick | 35cpaid | +51%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf2…85b7backed Germany | 72c | 69.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a54…e581backed Germany | 72c | 48.61$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.61 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3789…a703backed Lithuania | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6894…59d8backed Lithuania | 31c | 39.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef23…9971backed Germany | 71c | 35.21$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Euroleague and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.