MLB · resolved market
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Philadelphia Phillies
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x371cb6c966ef12668c0ca4f273e6554b1b12a7019d0d1f5c84a53d100d8cc556
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Toronto Blue Jaysof Toronto Blue Jays, Philadelphia Phillies
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,702
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,702 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Philadelphia Phillies | 60c | 1,154$697 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$697.08 | 1,874 | 52%975 W · 899 L | +51.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Philadelphia Phillies | 59c | 813.45$477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$477.02 | 1,358 | 50.8%690 W · 668 L | +13.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Toronto Blue Jays | 39c | 706$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$433.14 | 96 | 35.4%34 W · 62 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 55c | 440.8$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.6 | 991 | 49.9%495 W · 496 L | -10.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4328…11d2backed Toronto Blue Jays | 42c | 391.4$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.01 | 67 | 49.3%33 W · 34 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5271…0f95backed Toronto Blue Jays | 42c | 386$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.88 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +13%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Toronto Blue Jays | 44c | 342$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.66 | 474 | 47.3%224 W · 250 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f8…ae2ebacked Toronto Blue Jays | 34c | 339$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.51 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae82…faf0backed Philadelphia Phillies | 55c | 329.82$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.4 | 246 | 51.6%127 W · 119 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe278…b608backed Philadelphia Phillies | 57c | 320.4$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.36 | 92 | 44.6%41 W · 51 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04ec…8ac9backed Toronto Blue Jays | 41c | 230$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.7 | 688 | 46.8%322 W · 366 L | +9.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb691…b39dbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 60c | 219.11$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.59 | 142 | 51.4%73 W · 69 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked Toronto Blue Jays | 42c | 200$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116 | 3,303 | 46.3%1,528 W · 1,775 L | +22.6wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 47c | 158.22$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.86 | 722 | 47.6%344 W · 378 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Toronto Blue Jays | 40c | 150$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 555 | 41.4%230 W · 325 L | -26.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Philadelphia Phillies | 59c | 135.59$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 665 | 51.1%340 W · 325 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 56c | 107.14$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 509 | 49.5%252 W · 257 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4d…168cbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 832 | 48%399 W · 433 L | +20.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Toronto Blue Jays | 44c | 98.89$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.02 | 408 | 46.1%188 W · 220 L | -10.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e7c…164dbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 45c | 82.45$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.35 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94a5…4eb8backed Toronto Blue Jays | 45c | 80$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 126 | 51.6%65 W · 61 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e4a…5ba6backed Toronto Blue Jays | 48c | 70$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.4 | 115 | 42.6%49 W · 66 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e72…c55fbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 53c | 64.43$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.15 | 64 | 50%32 W · 32 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Philadelphia Phillies | 56c | 63.39$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 849 | 49.1%417 W · 432 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Philadelphia Phillies | 32c | 58$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 1,928 | 17.2%331 W · 1,597 L | -320.9wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Philadelphia Phillies | 60c | 46.15$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.7 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Philadelphia Phillies | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 417 | 51.3%214 W · 203 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e1…c20abacked Philadelphia Phillies | 58c | 29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.82 | 103 | 53.4%55 W · 48 L | +5.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Toronto Blue Jays | 48c | 25.8$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.42 | 352 | 40.3%142 W · 210 L | -23.5wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbbaa…dd4fbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 43c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Philadelphia Phillies | 62c | 22.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 484 | 45.9%222 W · 262 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6982…5831backed Toronto Blue Jays | 45c | 22.3$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.16 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Toronto Blue Jays | 47c | 22.02$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 257 | 48.2%124 W · 133 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Toronto Blue Jays | 59c | 17.97$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.37 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.