Tennis · resolved market
Japan Open Tennis Championships: Yosuke Watanuki vs Nuno Borges
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x373954ff9547c0c4541d92e381739028276754bb697132173ec4028f04030302
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Borgesof Watanuki, Borges
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,512
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,973
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,512 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1642…5988backed Watanuki | 72c | 2,284$1,652 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,652.33 | 119 | 56.3%67 W · 52 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Borges | 46c | 2,051$948 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,103.06 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Borges | 44c | 1,308$582 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$726.25 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Watanuki | 43c | 1,277$546 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$546 | 139 | 35.3%49 W · 90 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Watanuki | 58c | 1,149$667 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$667.46 | 652 | 42.8%279 W · 373 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…ff0ebacked Borges | 57c | 966$551 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$415.38 | 591 | 51.6%305 W · 286 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Borges | 57c | 927.37$529 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$398.77 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe671…a682backed Borges | 34c | 700$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$463 | 576 | 45.5%262 W · 314 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed Borges | 58c | 349.97$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.99 | 296 | 36.8%109 W · 187 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9354…6502backed Borges | 57c | 269.36$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.6 | 755 | 47.8%361 W · 394 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf5c…48f9backed Borges | 51c | 200$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99 | 154 | 47.4%73 W · 81 L | +14.1wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Borges | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Watanuki | 38c | 150.73$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.37 | 627 | 42.4%266 W · 361 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61c1…0513backed Borges | 41c | 146.34$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.34 | 1,287 | 60.7%781 W · 506 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked Watanuki | 39c | 125.24$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.31 | 296 | 34.1%101 W · 195 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47ca…c7f5backed Borges | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.38 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.20per pick | 45cpaid | +39%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…06c9backed Borges | 32c | 104.13$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.81 | 260 | 45%117 W · 143 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Borges | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 629 | 52.1%328 W · 301 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7312…d40dbacked Watanuki | 76c | 99.89$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.92 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -6.9wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x57b2…21ffbacked Borges | 43c | 83.72$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.72 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.28per pick | 42cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3823…2784backed Watanuki | 74c | 50.18$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.13 | 321 | 61.7%198 W · 123 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Borges | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 2,339 | 46.6%1,090 W · 1,249 L | +55.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.