Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Michigan Wolverines vs. Oregon Ducks
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3743d8e2c5270b2307822da127f1776e58c312a84fc8ecac51ad7db814cc1b3f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Michigan Wolverinesof Michigan Wolverines, Oregon Ducks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $140,198
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $141,124
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $140,198 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7d92…8676backed Oregon Ducks | 5c | 94,088$4,234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,233.94 | 211 | 49.3%104 W · 107 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed2c…9597backed Oregon Ducks | 4c | 5,000$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.87 | 397 | 44.8%178 W · 219 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44b9…0598backed Oregon Ducks | 18c | 3,211$586 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$586 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | -5.9wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Oregon Ducks | 8c | 1,365$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.03 | 3,684 | 42.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L | +32.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Oregon Ducks | 4c | 1,080$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.24 | 2,579 | 47.3%1,221 W · 1,358 L | -42.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea81…eeaebacked Oregon Ducks | 5c | 999.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.79 | 1,227 | 27.8%341 W · 886 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Oregon Ducks | 5c | 737.85$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.02 | 3,380 | 49.5%1,673 W · 1,707 L | +30.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Oregon Ducks | 3c | 610$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.91 | 1,540 | 41.3%636 W · 904 L | +4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3697…f189backed Oregon Ducks | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 115 | 7%8 W · 107 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb8…753bbacked Oregon Ducks | 8c | 453.31$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 50 | 18%9 W · 41 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -43%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Oregon Ducks | 6c | 447.92$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.58 | 254 | 36.6%93 W · 161 L | -13.9wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Oregon Ducks | 7c | 435.89$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 2,124 | 50.4%1,070 W · 1,054 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Oregon Ducks | 4c | 416.88$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.07 | 94 | 42.6%40 W · 54 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6b8…d54cbacked Oregon Ducks | 12c | 351.12$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -2.5wins | -0.12per pick | 31cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab5c…3fbdbacked Oregon Ducks | 9c | 255.65$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.77 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Oregon Ducks | 12c | 233.78$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.93 | 2,555 | 41.6%1,062 W · 1,493 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1256…a2a8backed Oregon Ducks | 9c | 228.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b7a…bc22backed Oregon Ducks | 11c | 227.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 143 | 25.9%37 W · 106 L | -8.7wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb670…4285backed Oregon Ducks | 13c | 154.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +52.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…5c69backed Oregon Ducks | 16c | 130$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 61 | 14.8%9 W · 52 L | -12.0wins | -0.20per pick | 34cpaid | -64%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x5305…57e8backed Oregon Ducks | 12c | 107$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca95…20a8backed Oregon Ducks | 13c | 93.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x407d…9f7abacked Oregon Ducks | 12c | 91.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Michigan Wolverines vs. Oregon Ducksthis page
- Michigan Wolverines vs. Oregon Ducks: O/U 155.5Under won
- Spread: Michigan Wolverines (-16.5)Oregon Ducks won
- Spread: Michigan Wolverines (-17.5)Oregon Ducks won
- Spread: Michigan Wolverines (-18.5)Oregon Ducks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.