Tennis · resolved market
Hong Kong Tennis Open, Qualification: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Zsombor Piros
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3749f81c3db90fd3ce61371dcac0438a4966690c9b3408179a6d652410c25fcd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Struffof Struff, Piros
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,808
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,015
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,808 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Piros | 19c | 2,102$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.05 | 8,241 | 45.5%3,746 W · 4,495 L | +166.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Struff | 76c | 1,798$1,370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$428.04 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Piros | 16c | 1,211$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.27 | 2,746 | 30.8%846 W · 1,900 L | -67.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Piros | 27c | 714.57$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.84 | 656 | 47.6%312 W · 344 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bdb…a90dbacked Piros | 15c | 677$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.81 | 269 | 21.2%57 W · 212 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf41…5562backed Piros | 13c | 526.44$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.44 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x621c…1192backed Piros | 11c | 368.27$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.51 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +3.7wins | +0.22per pick | 25cpaid | +89.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Struff | 69c | 361.61$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.21 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae2…20a3backed Struff | 72c | 311.1$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.04 | 73 | 65.8%48 W · 25 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Piros | 19c | 281$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.45 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfee4…d386backed Piros | 17c | 217.6$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.56 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe203…1b53backed Struff | 72c | 164.26$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.99 | 105 | 51.4%54 W · 51 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7163…3601backed Struff | 71c | 154.23$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.14 | 102 | 52%53 W · 49 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Piros | 19c | 148.64$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.14 | 6,792 | 36.9%2,505 W · 4,287 L | -98.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09d2…cc27backed Piros | 18c | 94.8$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.06 | 255 | 42%107 W · 148 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cd2…f9a6backed Struff | 70c | 94.02$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.16 | 97 | 62.9%61 W · 36 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14de…489cbacked Struff | 68c | 75$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 168 | 70.8%119 W · 49 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x554f…afb4backed Piros | 35c | 62.1$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.92 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07fe…0a16backed Struff | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 270 | 58.1%157 W · 113 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f42…5b96backed Struff | 70c | 43.16$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.16 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +3.0wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7d…4a9bbacked Struff | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 398 | 50%199 W · 199 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c00…9500backed Struff | 69c | 23.19$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.19 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c82…05cfbacked Struff | 70c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 107 | 55.1%59 W · 48 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Struff | 73c | 18.71$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.05 | 1,258 | 50%629 W · 629 L | -4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca61…f06abacked Struff | 79c | 15.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.19 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc7…55f6backed Struff | 77c | 13.63$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.08 | 115 | 53%61 W · 54 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.