Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x374a9f48f5681d255fb07404f7cebf75f5d6ecca26348a4a64a13ed56e037ab8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,212
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,089
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,212 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x488c…8c1cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,708$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,676.98 | 375 | 32.8%123 W · 252 L | +36.4wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbb04…48cfbacked Yes | 50c | 1,117$555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$561.91 | 100 | 23%23 W · 77 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…efcebacked Yes | 42c | 725.72$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$421.76 | 428 | 20.1%86 W · 342 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 2c | 657.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$644.86 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb14…0da7backed No | 4c | 599.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 249 | 21.3%53 W · 196 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 76c | 597.48$455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.41 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 75c | 532.8$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.31 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 6c | 526.58$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$493.77 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bef…a2babacked No | 24c | 418.05$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.07 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 60cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…1212backed Yes | 8c | 404.26$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.45 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 15c | 294.77$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.95 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 66c | 277.96$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.92 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 43c | 254.09$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.45 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 13c | 239.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.37 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7211…6734backed No | 20c | 237.25$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.44 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6a…f60cbacked Yes | 31c | 219.4$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.47 | 294 | 27.9%82 W · 212 L | +18.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x455c…e548backed No | 34c | 216.24$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.92 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -5.6wins | -0.17per pick | 66cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 17c | 213.48$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.59 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 58c | 207.83$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.35 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36ef…0958backed Yes | 11c | 183.83$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.62 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 65c | 166.01$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.86 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 47c | 160$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.67 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cee…9b51backed Yes | 7c | 147.68$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.15 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.8wins | +0.20per pick | 44cpaid | +113.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x335f…51c4backed Yes | 10c | 142.97$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.13 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda42…d020backed Yes | 11c | 136.86$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.27 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 48c | 136.76$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.6 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 35c | 128.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 40c | 128.8$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.51 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 24c | 115$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.8 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…1b55backed Yes | 13c | 105.04$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.51 | 269 | 33.1%89 W · 180 L | +21.8wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa30f…4da6backed No | 77c | 103.91$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 211 | 32.2%68 W · 143 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 29c | 102.39$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.75 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 23c | 99.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.99 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8580…3f7cbacked No | 45c | 95.66$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf75f…b458backed Yes | 53c | 95.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.83 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +6.1wins | +0.14per pick | 38cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 36c | 95.12$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.55 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 54c | 93.8$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.57 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x79c9…b2f1backed Yes | 29c | 90.8$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.5 | 173 | 10.4%18 W · 155 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8db4…9c07backed Yes | 57c | 87.93$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.62 | 92 | 39.1%36 W · 56 L | -6.7wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0d…3e25backed Yes | 78c | 87.82$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.69 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | -5.5wins | -0.10per pick | 61cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f3…afd7backed Yes | 71c | 85.38$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.49 | 80 | 41.3%33 W · 47 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 34c | 80.32$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.69 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f0…6450backed No | 21c | 79.14$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.39 | 141 | 19.1%27 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed Yes | 21c | 75.77$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.14 | 393 | 46.6%183 W · 210 L | +29.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 36c | 65.73$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.53 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc84…a0d2backed No | 29c | 63.85$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 106 | 34.9%37 W · 69 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +59.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 48c | 62.36$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.13 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5948…2d49backed No | 25c | 61.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 57 | 15.8%9 W · 48 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -31%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…f053backed No | 32c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 180 | 46.1%83 W · 97 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…2639backed No | 46c | 60$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.84 | 438 | 42%184 W · 254 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ecc…c745backed No | 48c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.86 | 179 | 47.5%85 W · 94 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde0f…a4e7backed Yes | 74c | 58.45$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.21 | 72 | 31.9%23 W · 49 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +66.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 39c | 55.87$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes | 28c | 53.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.1 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 25c | 45.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 70c | 38.17$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.79 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a7…d69dbacked Yes | 80c | 35.94$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 235 | 49.4%116 W · 119 L | -12.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 61c | 35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.35 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2797…9bc0backed No | 40c | 34.61$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 181 | 42.5%77 W · 104 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa92e…4aafbacked No | 35c | 34.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 51c | 33.82$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.23 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdbb…4328backed Yes | 76c | 30.18$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.33 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 61c | 28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.08 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 65c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 73c | 24.01$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.37 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc176…5d01backed Yes | 78c | 14.16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.16 | 104 | 63.5%66 W · 38 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.