NHL · resolved market
KHL: Sibir Novosibirsk vs. Spartak Moscow
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x374c7dc604a32354fb7b9064990dcc0f8a324085fdfc273a7dd77758e066ecdb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Spartak Moscowof Sibir Novosibirsk, Spartak Moscow
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,805
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,481
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,805 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Sibir Novosibirsk | 31c | 634.8$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.56 | 533 | 37.5%200 W · 333 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc87b…51d4backed Spartak Moscow | 69c | 289.86$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.86 | 31 | 71%22 W · 9 L | +5.4wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Spartak Moscow | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.93 | 851 | 48.5%413 W · 438 L | -48.2wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x40f8…327dbacked Spartak Moscow | 66c | 94.8$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.23 | 67 | 46.3%31 W · 36 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cff…6471backed Spartak Moscow | 68c | 90.9$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.64 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec13…862bbacked Spartak Moscow | 65c | 62.79$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.97 | 225 | 46.2%104 W · 121 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc995…25c2backed Spartak Moscow | 69c | 58.67$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.19 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +70.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Sibir Novosibirsk | 35c | 56.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 780 | 38.5%300 W · 480 L | +23.5wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65ce…b90bbacked Sibir Novosibirsk | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 94 | 30.9%29 W · 65 L | -5.3wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -20%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x499e…c968backed Sibir Novosibirsk | 33c | 45.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc049…48abbacked Sibir Novosibirsk | 34c | 32.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 148 | 44.6%66 W · 82 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58e4…73f9backed Spartak Moscow | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa2db…218abacked Spartak Moscow | 69c | 18.84$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.84 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a37…6e6fbacked Spartak Moscow | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.