Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x376503646916a31c2a3966ec6161f3f55947f11d974c4bea73e01575a721ad57
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,272
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,048
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,272 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb306…9873backed Yes | 54c | 282.63$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.04 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 76c | 245.42$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.85 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 28c | 179.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.13 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 31c | 163.64$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.1 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 43c | 154$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.8 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 43c | 124.48$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.6 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 34c | 108.72$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.52 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 26c | 104.62$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.02 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed No | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 22c | 97.46$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 56c | 97$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.75 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 64c | 95$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.85 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 56c | 88.19$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.02 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 20c | 79.79$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7581…2ca4backed Yes | 27c | 78.22$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.49 | 208 | 33.2%69 W · 139 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 30c | 74$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.91 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 30c | 71.37$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.63 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 50c | 68.34$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.08 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 29c | 64.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.95 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 29c | 60.03$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.18 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204c…b31dbacked Yes | 34c | 58.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 59 | 32.2%19 W · 40 L | -4.2wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 70c | 55.64$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.45 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc3e…cefdbacked No | 68c | 53.04$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 56 | 67.9%38 W · 18 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 23c | 50.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked No | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65e6…3289backed Yes | 26c | 49.87$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 66c | 48.61$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.46 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 36c | 46.8$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xfe55…516ebacked Yes | 28c | 44.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 78c | 42.73$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4526…2d4bbacked No | 54c | 42$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.19 | 91 | 59.3%54 W · 37 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 61c | 41.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.31 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb2…ad6fbacked Yes | 26c | 41.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 163 | 24.5%40 W · 123 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 46c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked Yes | 33c | 39.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 33c | 39.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf72a…e15abacked Yes | 31c | 35.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 70c | 32.92$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.91 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 57c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 39c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.38 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 66c | 28$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 57c | 28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.04 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 72c | 27.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.72 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe985…8cc8backed No | 48c | 26.02$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 83 | 25.3%21 W · 62 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 69c | 21.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d70…cc5ebacked No | 72c | 20.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 156 | 66%103 W · 53 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82e7…f552backed No | 76c | 15.31$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 354 | 41%145 W · 209 L | -19.3wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.1 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C on June 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 10?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on June 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.