Tennis · resolved market
Estoril Open, Qualification: Francisco Rocha vs Gonzalo Bueno
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3790c1e160b9b4713be31ec46b6d7726d58f651e1d76ac7310d28f72fbdb549a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Gonzalo Buenoof Francisco Rocha, Gonzalo Bueno
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $71,459
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $74,282
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $71,459 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x41cf…6002backed Francisco Rocha | 8c | 10,197$775 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$775 | 45 | 15.6%7 W · 38 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Francisco Rocha | 8c | 7,942$655 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$654.79 | 11,325 | 43.4%4,912 W · 6,413 L | +18.6wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Francisco Rocha | 3c | 5,497$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.43 | 1,143 | 46.4%530 W · 613 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Francisco Rocha | 12c | 3,851$479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$478.68 | 8,726 | 36.2%3,161 W · 5,565 L | -187.0wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecdb…c4c7backed Francisco Rocha | 16c | 1,139$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.29 | 559 | 41.3%231 W · 328 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1df2…89a0backed Francisco Rocha | 6c | 937.27$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.04 | 2,065 | 35.2%727 W · 1,338 L | -52.7wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4be6…b010backed Francisco Rocha | 21c | 678.75$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.48 | 1,428 | 48.2%689 W · 739 L | +4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb2…1bfcbacked Francisco Rocha | 10c | 638.3$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.83 | 277 | 55.6%154 W · 123 L | +10.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Francisco Rocha | 14c | 534.61$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.17 | 141 | 24.8%35 W · 106 L | -10.9wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd546…657bbacked Francisco Rocha | 7c | 342.86$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 194 | 10.3%20 W · 174 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed Francisco Rocha | 29c | 299.97$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.99 | 174 | 36.8%64 W · 110 L | +8.1wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…46b1backed Francisco Rocha | 16c | 151.39$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.96 | 5,199 | 28.8%1,496 W · 3,703 L | -18.4wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe24e…eecebacked Gonzalo Bueno | 78c | 128.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 870 | 54.6%475 W · 395 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Francisco Rocha | 16c | 120.38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.26 | 179 | 31.8%57 W · 122 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb02…0f88backed Francisco Rocha | 17c | 120$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked Francisco Rocha | 17c | 77$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 333 | 50.2%167 W · 166 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Francisco Rocha | 16c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 482 | 45.6%220 W · 262 L | -11.1wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30f6…004fbacked Gonzalo Bueno | 56c | 60.46$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 169 | 52.1%88 W · 81 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0df7…1ec1backed Francisco Rocha | 17c | 60$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 1,830 | 57.7%1,056 W · 774 L | +105.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbd1…0ac8backed Gonzalo Bueno | 56c | 39.54$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.34per pick | 50cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x88a9…e618backed Gonzalo Bueno | 78c | 38.46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 913 | 54.9%501 W · 412 L | +16.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe4…f12fbacked Gonzalo Bueno | 78c | 28.28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.26 | 582 | 65.5%381 W · 201 L | +17.9wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Estoril Open, Qualification: Francisco Rocha vs Gonzalo Buenothis page
- Set Handicap: Rocha (-1.5) vs Bueno (+1.5)Bueno won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.