South American Leagues · resolved market
Will Club Tijuana vs. Deportivo Toluca FC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x37a53b921190ca99fc01593a50848d52fdfa96cade6f3a035052d980a141ffda
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,637
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,129
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,637 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x82c9…02ffbacked Yes | 67c | 5,552$3,732 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,819.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +48.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 33c | 1,790$590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$589.56 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 33c | 1,663$548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$547.98 | 506 | 61.3%310 W · 196 L | +20.8wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked No | 31c | 1,376$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426.53 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xade8…b0bdbacked No | 33c | 1,176$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.24 | 111 | 59.5%66 W · 45 L | +9.5wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc20b…ba2fbacked Yes | 72c | 218.33$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.85 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 66c | 180$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.6 | 636 | 44.7%284 W · 352 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…0fedbacked No | 30c | 147.28$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.79 | 226 | 52.7%119 W · 107 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e9c…ab80backed Yes | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d24…a93fbacked No | 76c | 45.6$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.62 | 128 | 64.8%83 W · 45 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd88c…991ebacked Yes | 77c | 41.56$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf994…892cbacked Yes | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfac…490fbacked Yes | 68c | 25.06$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa413…e002backed No | 76c | 18.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -2.4wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcf4a…a43abacked Yes | 65c | 16.03$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.61 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf10f…004dbacked Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 66 | 65.2%43 W · 23 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Club Tijuana vs. Deportivo Toluca FC end in a draw?this page
- Will Club Tijuana win on 2025-10-22?No won
- Will Deportivo Toluca FC win on 2025-10-22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.