South American Leagues · resolved market
Will Deportivo Toluca FC win on 2025-10-22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xea2155c78e2f50ddac0e1d1af787c7860055a9e2977b1ad349a60eaf01495210
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $59,368
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $55,471
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $59,368 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes | 50c | 35,000$17,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,500 | 316 | 43%136 W · 180 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed No | 50c | 34,982$17,491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,491 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed No | 53c | 5,561$2,947 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,613.8 | 94 | 54.3%51 W · 43 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ef…5232backed Yes | 47c | 5,234$2,460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,460 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf679…edb3backed Yes | 44c | 4,723$2,077 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,076.65 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xade8…b0bdbacked No | 68c | 1,501$1,020 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$481.21 | 111 | 59.5%66 W · 45 L | +9.5wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Yes | 15c | 487.03$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.75 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf82…d7f9backed Yes | 21c | 465$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3222…2823backed Yes | 41c | 393.5$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.27 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb0b…e2a3backed Yes | 40c | 362.5$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 57c | 317.08$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.95 | 506 | 61.3%310 W · 196 L | +20.8wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 69c | 287.44$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.75 | 636 | 44.7%284 W · 352 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08be…5b1fbacked Yes | 21c | 238.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…477abacked Yes | 34c | 200$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -4.0wins | -0.15per pick | 33cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf42a…8470backed Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 51 | 11.8%6 W · 45 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Yes | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 516 | 54.8%283 W · 233 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…0fedbacked Yes | 21c | 181.9$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.69 | 226 | 52.7%119 W · 107 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9efd…1880backed Yes | 47c | 170.21$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f5…30bcbacked Yes | 40c | 140.95$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.38 | 44 | 20.5%9 W · 35 L | -5.7wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee7…12c5backed No | 64c | 125$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked No | 52c | 122$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.56 | 124 | 65.3%81 W · 43 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Yes | 36c | 111.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 67 | 31.3%21 W · 46 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 46c | 106.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.58 | 816 | 51.6%421 W · 395 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe708…e61cbacked Yes | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18ed…04cbbacked Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf08b…9a7dbacked Yes | 35c | 90$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a75…ed14backed Yes | 45c | 88.89$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x681d…4cbfbacked No | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x735a…3ef2backed No | 58c | 60.47$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.47 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 42c | 53.47$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.46 | 162 | 34.6%56 W · 106 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc5…ee5abacked Yes | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 181 | 40.3%73 W · 108 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0fb…c549backed Yes | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03bf…a94bbacked Yes | 47c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3c6…67ddbacked Yes | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88de…1091backed No | 48c | 38.46$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 146 | 30.8%45 W · 101 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x624a…287cbacked Yes | 44c | 31.82$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf672…c3c4backed Yes | 45c | 28.89$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71f…bd62backed Yes | 48c | 27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 115 | 49.6%57 W · 58 L | +7.2wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef41…2473backed Yes | 46c | 24.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 92 | 40.2%37 W · 55 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd0…dff3backed Yes | 49c | 24.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 318 | 27%86 W · 232 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Deportivo Toluca FC win on 2025-10-22?this page
- Will Club Tijuana vs. Deportivo Toluca FC end in a draw?Yes won
- Will Club Tijuana win on 2025-10-22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.