CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: megoshort vs Ursa (BO3) - European Pro League Series 6 Group A
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x37f108b5e579603aa1a4fe809389bec1730dccb3e0174c8a2a357acb9f0fd6d5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ursaof megoshort, Ursa
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,223
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,225
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,223 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbb64…bfdcbacked megoshort | 43c | 2,988$1,278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,277.63 | 183 | 41%75 W · 108 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a30…9232backed Ursa | 59c | 1,655$975 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$679.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed megoshort | 16c | 1,630$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.73 | 6,480 | 42.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L | -79.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…65ddbacked Ursa | 66c | 1,076$710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.33 | 844 | 54.3%458 W · 386 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f5e…58efbacked megoshort | 34c | 747.21$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.05 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed megoshort | 36c | 686.72$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.52 | 5,830 | 37.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L | +79.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d1f…a252backed megoshort | 38c | 506.46$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.78 | 150 | 33.3%50 W · 100 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaff6…394ebacked megoshort | 25c | 490.96$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.28 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b59…3aa6backed Ursa | 74c | 431.68$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.24 | 849 | 58.3%495 W · 354 L | +60.4wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Ursa | 53c | 362.49$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.37 | 604 | 51%308 W · 296 L | +8.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x835b…6f16backed Ursa | 57c | 358.51$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.16 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked megoshort | 43c | 353.99$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.47 | 1,714 | 46.7%801 W · 913 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6f6…8c20backed Ursa | 57c | 342.07$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab8d…6fe9backed Ursa | 57c | 324.75$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.42 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf3b…0375backed Ursa | 57c | 313.57$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.83 | 392 | 45.9%180 W · 212 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed megoshort | 43c | 281.19$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.7 | 4,038 | 48.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Ursa | 75c | 244.5$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.12 | 198 | 50.5%100 W · 98 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1769…94efbacked megoshort | 22c | 200$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.25 | 916 | 48.9%448 W · 468 L | +4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ee…0e41backed megoshort | 18c | 199.55$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.72 | 1,038 | 39.9%414 W · 624 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed megoshort | 24c | 196.56$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.45 | 780 | 43.7%341 W · 439 L | -21.5wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x523e…3128backed megoshort | 39c | 193.45$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.18 | 155 | 44.5%69 W · 86 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03f0…63e0backed megoshort | 10c | 172.26$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.45 | 222 | 53.2%118 W · 104 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed megoshort | 16c | 166.95$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.04 | 2,434 | 44.6%1,085 W · 1,349 L | -64.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0862…dc29backed Ursa | 72c | 160.27$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.76 | 486 | 35.4%172 W · 314 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64e8…7819backed megoshort | 42c | 150$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 540 | 32.4%175 W · 365 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad2a…99a3backed Ursa | 56c | 138.25$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.83 | 200 | 45.5%91 W · 109 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9b…cdeebacked megoshort | 10c | 132$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 313 | 28.4%89 W · 224 L | -21.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5625…6c2abacked Ursa | 77c | 127.42$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.77 | 361 | 51.8%187 W · 174 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1298…97b6backed Ursa | 69c | 123.78$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.37 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4c…dc70backed Ursa | 56c | 123.62$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.81 | 116 | 51.7%60 W · 56 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Ursa | 71c | 123.2$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.91 | 170 | 34.7%59 W · 111 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8f…870ebacked megoshort | 30c | 116.66$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 225 | 42.7%96 W · 129 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked megoshort | 24c | 114.73$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.93 | 1,281 | 37.8%484 W · 797 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1791…3e87backed Ursa | 64c | 111.28$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.67 | 399 | 46.4%185 W · 214 L | -12.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2606…ba10backed Ursa | 73c | 101.96$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.59 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed megoshort | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 2,061 | 50.7%1,045 W · 1,016 L | -18.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xced8…221ebacked megoshort | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 700 | 38.9%272 W · 428 L | -29.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed megoshort | 27c | 95.62$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.82 | 972 | 30%292 W · 680 L | -23.7wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ab…c40ebacked Ursa | 78c | 90.93$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.01 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +14%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91ac…5ff3backed Ursa | 59c | 90$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.9 | 771 | 46%355 W · 416 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7c0…f389backed megoshort | 21c | 85.46$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.95 | 63 | 33.3%21 W · 42 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e19…d2b0backed megoshort | 15c | 81.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 527 | 50.7%267 W · 260 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd754…7857backed megoshort | 40c | 78.23$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Ursa | 55c | 77.84$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.08 | 177 | 58.2%103 W · 74 L | +13.7wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9348…8cfbbacked Ursa | 56c | 76.49$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.65 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d97…cab6backed Ursa | 57c | 68.36$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a29…836dbacked Ursa | 53c | 66.41$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.21 | 102 | 60.8%62 W · 40 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5229…2befbacked Ursa | 55c | 64.75$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.31 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked megoshort | 44c | 60$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 295 | 55.3%163 W · 132 L | +12.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c2…eef4backed megoshort | 24c | 59.65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.32 | 141 | 51.8%73 W · 68 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e85…3015backed Ursa | 75c | 49.91$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 85 | 63.5%54 W · 31 L | +9.2wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +35%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5b60…76d5backed megoshort | 22c | 48.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 378 | 41.8%158 W · 220 L | -33.1wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x46d8…5cfbbacked Ursa | 57c | 42.73$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.37 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc63a…26a0backed Ursa | 58c | 41.01$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.22 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Ursa | 68c | 39.17$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.51 | 472 | 60%283 W · 189 L | +31.8wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed Ursa | 67c | 36.27$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.97 | 2,362 | 46.6%1,100 W · 1,262 L | -53.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1e…522fbacked Ursa | 58c | 36.16$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.1 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Ursa | 62c | 31.34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 336 | 57.1%192 W · 144 L | -12.6wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7e…70ecbacked Ursa | 58c | 29.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 86 | 48.8%42 W · 44 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Ursa | 60c | 27.72$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.22 | 1,547 | 33.9%524 W · 1,023 L | -73.4wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0b…4dd5backed megoshort | 39c | 27.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 96 | 45.8%44 W · 52 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2798…a9c7backed Ursa | 70c | 25.04$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.51 | 59 | 49.2%29 W · 30 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…2877backed Ursa | 75c | 21.16$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 648 | 54.3%352 W · 296 L | +25.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3468…754fbacked Ursa | 74c | 18.7$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.86 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73a2…3b68backed Ursa | 76c | 14.81$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.57 | 958 | 49.8%477 W · 481 L | -17.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: megoshort vs Ursa (BO3) - European Pro League Series 6 Group Athis page
- Counter-Strike: megoshort vs Ursa - Map 1 WinnerUrsa won
- Counter-Strike: megoshort vs Ursa - Map 2 WinnerUrsa won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.