Lol · resolved market
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs Hanwha Life Esports Challengers - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x37f42d2f9359d1d0ecf26a1bcaf847d51e07cc0cea8361135f7d75a51e52895a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Hanwha Life Esports Challengersof Nongshim Esports Academy, Hanwha Life Esports Challengers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,527
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $55,601
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,527 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x67b6…00bcbacked Hanwha Life Esports Challengers | 24c | 4,298$1,031 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,266.36 | 499 | 40.7%203 W · 296 L | +18.1wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a4…a73ebacked Nongshim Esports Academy | 1c | 3,946$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.68 | 65 | 1.5%1 W · 64 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -96.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26f8…3452backed Hanwha Life Esports Challengers | 40c | 3,443$1,365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,078.23 | 273 | 53.1%145 W · 128 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99e4…e4c4backed Nongshim Esports Academy | 51c | 3,259$1,674 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,674.24 | 68 | 36.8%25 W · 43 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0588…8f18backed Nongshim Esports Academy | 35c | 2,258$780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$780 | 250 | 38%95 W · 155 L | +20.2wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2615…c16dbacked Nongshim Esports Academy | 77c | 1,646$1,265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,265.3 | 233 | 57.1%133 W · 100 L | -11.6wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x64a8…7bc3backed Hanwha Life Esports Challengers | 58c | 1,631$943 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$688.13 | 479 | 53.2%255 W · 224 L | -26.7wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0fbc…62a3backed Nongshim Esports Academy | 56c | 1,405$783 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$782.9 | 631 | 61.2%386 W · 245 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Hanwha Life Esports Challengers | 64c | 1,256$804 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$451.53 | 1,158 | 42.6%493 W · 665 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed Nongshim Esports Academy | 16c | 1,250$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.04 | 1,806 | 39.1%707 W · 1,099 L | -30.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe486…0c26backed Nongshim Esports Academy | 3c | 1,047$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.31 | 219 | 3.2%7 W · 212 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed Hanwha Life Esports Challengers | 26c | 874.22$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$646.92 | 1,258 | 38.6%485 W · 773 L | -61.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b75…3fd1backed Hanwha Life Esports Challengers | 69c | 870.37$602 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268 | 941 | 34.5%325 W · 616 L | +33.6wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd3…fefabacked Nongshim Esports Academy | 74c | 675.68$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 74 | 60.8%45 W · 29 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb726…4d2bbacked Nongshim Esports Academy | 60c | 666.67$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -3.3wins | -0.19per pick | 43cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Nongshim Esports Academy | 59c | 584.67$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.73 | 2,825 | 41.4%1,169 W · 1,656 L | -14.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd9…2a08backed Hanwha Life Esports Challengers | 31c | 576.78$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.73 | 392 | 39%153 W · 239 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcae6…4f85backed Hanwha Life Esports Challengers | 50c | 563.87$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.94 | 672 | 76.9%517 W · 155 L | +87.3wins | +0.13per pick | 64cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x060d…1094backed Nongshim Esports Academy | 2c | 508.59$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 206 | 21.8%45 W · 161 L | -18.1wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe0b3…b220backed Hanwha Life Esports Challengers | 38c | 419.55$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.13 | 358 | 50.8%182 W · 176 L | +13.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x307d…9163backed Nongshim Esports Academy | 60c | 415$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249 | 1,183 | 52%615 W · 568 L | -14.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a70…18f0backed Nongshim Esports Academy | 68c | 411$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.96 | 175 | 42.3%74 W · 101 L | -11.3wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x368d…d853backed Nongshim Esports Academy | 64c | 400$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256 | 179 | 42.5%76 W · 103 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf828…00a5backed Nongshim Esports Academy | 64c | 384.84$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.72 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Hanwha Life Esports Challengers | 22c | 344.02$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.97 | 1,056 | 28.5%301 W · 755 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd68e…8048backed Nongshim Esports Academy | 76c | 308.03$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.1 | 493 | 66.7%329 W · 164 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…7295backed Nongshim Esports Academy | 79c | 305.11$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x881b…9893backed Hanwha Life Esports Challengers | 27c | 296.3$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.3 | 110 | 37.3%41 W · 69 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5784…6788backed Nongshim Esports Academy | 74c | 270.31$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 62 | 59.7%37 W · 25 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1412…b6debacked Nongshim Esports Academy | 59c | 267.99$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.64 | 141 | 53.9%76 W · 65 L | -7.2wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebff…70e5backed Nongshim Esports Academy | 49c | 249.99$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.62 | 1,079 | 26%281 W · 798 L | -99.0wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0535…75ccbacked Hanwha Life Esports Challengers | 25c | 247.99$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.99 | 1,009 | 49.2%496 W · 513 L | +30.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeecd…4fefbacked Nongshim Esports Academy | 73c | 223.38$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.07 | 364 | 60.2%219 W · 145 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3938…c6cbbacked Hanwha Life Esports Challengers | 55c | 196.19$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.57 | 210 | 59%124 W · 86 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Hanwha Life Esports Challengers | 25c | 179.97$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.68 | 2,226 | 37.5%834 W · 1,392 L | -29.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd43f…0bb0backed Hanwha Life Esports Challengers | 60c | 165.78$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.31 | 1,130 | 30%339 W · 791 L | -27.5wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Hanwha Life Esports Challengers | 65c | 147.27$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.41 | 2,406 | 42.6%1,026 W · 1,380 L | +21.5wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e91…ea34backed Hanwha Life Esports Challengers | 59c | 134$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.94 | 505 | 69.9%353 W · 152 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb38c…b2c9backed Nongshim Esports Academy | 39c | 125$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.75 | 431 | 48%207 W · 224 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd970…757fbacked Nongshim Esports Academy | 60c | 114.5$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…0decbacked Nongshim Esports Academy | 49c | 107$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.2 | 453 | 44.6%202 W · 251 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2752…8ce3backed Nongshim Esports Academy | 75c | 100$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe70c…c938backed Nongshim Esports Academy | 73c | 100$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 479 | 51.4%246 W · 233 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa57…a128backed Nongshim Esports Academy | 78c | 92.45$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.25 | 403 | 64.5%260 W · 143 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5860…020bbacked Hanwha Life Esports Challengers | 62c | 90.77$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.49 | 133 | 60.2%80 W · 53 L | -6.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd198…8797backed Hanwha Life Esports Challengers | 55c | 89$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.89 | 183 | 62.3%114 W · 69 L | +12.4wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Nongshim Esports Academy | 57c | 83.93$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.6 | 2,341 | 40.3%943 W · 1,398 L | -61.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Nongshim Esports Academy | 60c | 80$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc1…9932backed Nongshim Esports Academy | 79c | 78.03$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 119 | 37%44 W · 75 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd0…b94cbacked Nongshim Esports Academy | 75c | 73.45$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.79 | 53 | 60.4%32 W · 21 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 69cpaid | -15%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb8aa…0ae3backed Nongshim Esports Academy | 74c | 72.97$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 444 | 70%311 W · 133 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf292…1cc7backed Nongshim Esports Academy | 76c | 65.82$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.02 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf188…6eadbacked Nongshim Esports Academy | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 102 | 39.2%40 W · 62 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf12d…7350backed Hanwha Life Esports Challengers | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24ac…f6b4backed Hanwha Life Esports Challengers | 33c | 59.73$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.73 | 346 | 31.2%108 W · 238 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Hanwha Life Esports Challengers | 18c | 55.74$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.74 | 1,831 | 17.1%313 W · 1,518 L | -236.0wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -46%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed Nongshim Esports Academy | 43c | 54$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.47 | 439 | 47.6%209 W · 230 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14de…489cbacked Nongshim Esports Academy | 78c | 51.2$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.68 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…0ba4backed Nongshim Esports Academy | 73c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 152 | 55.3%84 W · 68 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb77…1dd0backed Hanwha Life Esports Challengers | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb0…3182backed Hanwha Life Esports Challengers | 52c | 46.72$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.43 | 77 | 54.5%42 W · 35 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cea…b281backed Hanwha Life Esports Challengers | 35c | 43.04$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.04 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdda3…f5f5backed Nongshim Esports Academy | 74c | 40.54$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9750…7956backed Hanwha Life Esports Challengers | 75c | 39$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 174 | 66.1%115 W · 59 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba1…49d4backed Nongshim Esports Academy | 75c | 38.67$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc155…d550backed Nongshim Esports Academy | 50c | 38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 148 | 54.7%81 W · 67 L | -10.4wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf60c…f540backed Nongshim Esports Academy | 63c | 35$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 45 | 64.4%29 W · 16 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ee…e425backed Hanwha Life Esports Challengers | 29c | 35$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.85 | 751 | 42.1%316 W · 435 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d64…527ebacked Hanwha Life Esports Challengers | 57c | 29.82$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.82 | 625 | 58.7%367 W · 258 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6a…04ebbacked Nongshim Esports Academy | 75c | 29.75$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.31 | 486 | 52.1%253 W · 233 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1208…0160backed Hanwha Life Esports Challengers | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 212 | 33%70 W · 142 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed0…eae7backed Nongshim Esports Academy | 74c | 18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 35 | 68.6%24 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac27…18e7backed Hanwha Life Esports Challengers | 77c | 16.3$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 364 | 67.3%245 W · 119 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs Hanwha Life Esports Challengers - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Game Handicap: NS.EA (-1.5) vs Hanwha Life Esports Challengers (+1.5)Hanwha Life Esports Challengers won
- Games Total: O/U 3.5Over won
- Games Total: O/U 4.5Over won
- LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs Hanwha Life Esports Challengers (BO5) - LCK Challengers League Kickoff PlayoffsNongshim Esports Academy won
- LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs Hanwha Life Esports Challengers - Game 1 WinnerNongshim Esports Academy won
- LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs Hanwha Life Esports Challengers - Game 3 WinnerHanwha Life Esports Challengers won
- LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs Hanwha Life Esports Challengers - Game 4 WinnerNongshim Esports Academy won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.