Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: George Mason Patriots (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x37fe69e25ae0f462f57f4487376f02de757d2684ab12cc8626d71fa455d279f1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Liberty Flamesof George Mason Patriots, Liberty Flames
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,513
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,513 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Liberty Flames | 54c | 5,850$3,159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,691.06 | 369 | 44.2%163 W · 206 L | -19.0wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked George Mason Patriots | 46c | 5,751$2,645 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,645.26 | 394 | 54.6%215 W · 179 L | +21.3wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked George Mason Patriots | 43c | 4,268$1,815 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,815.02 | 2,896 | 50%1,448 W · 1,448 L | +71.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Liberty Flames | 55c | 3,127$1,708 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,419.34 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…1d79backed Liberty Flames | 56c | 2,655$1,487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,168.41 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked George Mason Patriots | 44c | 2,395$1,056 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,056.5 | 1,910 | 49.6%947 W · 963 L | +30.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Liberty Flames | 56c | 833.55$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.02 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Liberty Flames | 55c | 540.1$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.65 | 3,905 | 58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L | +165.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed George Mason Patriots | 40c | 252.46$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.31 | 3,380 | 49.5%1,673 W · 1,707 L | +30.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed George Mason Patriots | 44c | 225.31$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.14 | 828 | 46.1%382 W · 446 L | +15.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c56…0615backed George Mason Patriots | 13c | 180.71$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.49 | 94 | 52.1%49 W · 45 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc383…c054backed Liberty Flames | 70c | 171.78$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.26 | 190 | 57.4%109 W · 81 L | -10.0wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66df…7ea5backed Liberty Flames | 57c | 165.24$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.05 | 112 | 57.1%64 W · 48 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x299f…2140backed George Mason Patriots | 41c | 150.15$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.56 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d6b…591abacked Liberty Flames | 65c | 148.23$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.33 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked George Mason Patriots | 45c | 144.27$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.92 | 300 | 54%162 W · 138 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6832…831fbacked George Mason Patriots | 29c | 89.66$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +2.3wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed George Mason Patriots | 49c | 85$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.65 | 1,152 | 48.9%563 W · 589 L | +3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Liberty Flames | 55c | 55.51$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.98 | 1,436 | 47.5%682 W · 754 L | -18.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce8…2f9ebacked Liberty Flames | 53c | 46$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.65 | 306 | 52%159 W · 147 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4a…4fb5backed Liberty Flames | 58c | 42.74$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.95 | 74 | 59.5%44 W · 30 L | +5.9wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8dec…60c2backed George Mason Patriots | 45c | 42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.02 | 142 | 45.8%65 W · 77 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x079c…a211backed George Mason Patriots | 45c | 36.27$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.42 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -3.2wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x67e6…86edbacked George Mason Patriots | 45c | 30.32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 296 | 50.7%150 W · 146 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed George Mason Patriots | 46c | 28.69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 353 | 38.5%136 W · 217 L | -18.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x087f…2ebfbacked George Mason Patriots | 45c | 24.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 57 | 57.9%33 W · 24 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: George Mason Patriots (-4.5)this page
- Liberty Flames vs. George Mason PatriotsLiberty Flames won
- Liberty Flames vs. George Mason Patriots: O/U 141.5Over won
- Liberty Flames vs. George Mason Patriots: O/U 144.5Over won
- Spread: George Mason Patriots (-3.5)Liberty Flames won
- Spread: George Mason Patriots (-5.5)Liberty Flames won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.