Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: George Mason Patriots (-5.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7dc8764d953aab7cb6d798369885fee62c8cfb3d83e8f6b09856ce5705f824c5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Liberty Flamesof George Mason Patriots, Liberty Flames
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,883
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,883 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked George Mason Patriots | 48c | 1,111$533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$533.27 | 2,687 | 48.5%1,303 W · 1,384 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d66…22d1backed Liberty Flames | 52c | 1,062$552 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$509.86 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe33f…e413backed George Mason Patriots | 44c | 598.29$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.54 | 372 | 46.2%172 W · 200 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x889c…e375backed Liberty Flames | 54c | 446.09$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.2 | 133 | 50.4%67 W · 66 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked George Mason Patriots | 46c | 400.81$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.52 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72a1…1950backed Liberty Flames | 51c | 194.36$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.24 | 338 | 55%186 W · 152 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Liberty Flames | 60c | 174.25$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.49 | 3,905 | 58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L | +165.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Liberty Flames | 58c | 172.4$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 828 | 46.1%382 W · 446 L | +15.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed George Mason Patriots | 35c | 155.93$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.27 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Liberty Flames | 57c | 147.96$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.39 | 2,896 | 50%1,448 W · 1,448 L | +71.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Liberty Flames | 58c | 84.74$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.59 | 4,552 | 50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L | -36.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce8…2f9ebacked Liberty Flames | 57c | 63.49$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.57 | 306 | 52%159 W · 147 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3db0…c48ebacked George Mason Patriots | 42c | 49.97$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa923…6704backed George Mason Patriots | 42c | 43.44$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3437…1e5ebacked George Mason Patriots | 42c | 35.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 99 | 52.5%52 W · 47 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Liberty Flames | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 1,985 | 64.1%1,273 W · 712 L | +144.2wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Liberty Flames | 57c | 22.82$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.73 | 134 | 57.5%77 W · 57 L | +7.6wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: George Mason Patriots (-5.5)this page
- Liberty Flames vs. George Mason PatriotsLiberty Flames won
- Liberty Flames vs. George Mason Patriots: O/U 141.5Over won
- Liberty Flames vs. George Mason Patriots: O/U 144.5Over won
- Spread: George Mason Patriots (-3.5)Liberty Flames won
- Spread: George Mason Patriots (-4.5)Liberty Flames won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.