Europa Conference League · resolved market
Spread: Bologna FC 1909 (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x381c7b898bc05b3f3919983b3f41059a3deb52d688fb326644c0b6a65bdbe3b3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bologna FC 1909of Bologna FC 1909, FC Red Bull Salzburg
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,266
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,837
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,266 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x011c…31dfbacked FC Red Bull Salzburg | 52c | 3,846$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Bologna FC 1909 | 48c | 2,754$1,322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,431.82 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c2b…9e65backed FC Red Bull Salzburg | 52c | 2,538$1,320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,320 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Bologna FC 1909 | 49c | 1,871$917 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$954.09 | 351 | 58.1%204 W · 147 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Bologna FC 1909 | 49c | 1,224$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$624.24 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f01…8bd0backed Bologna FC 1909 | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc53e…a45cbacked FC Red Bull Salzburg | 55c | 400$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75ef…cb71backed FC Red Bull Salzburg | 54c | 329.17$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.64 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd860…aa2cbacked Bologna FC 1909 | 49c | 254.58$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.58 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8bd…df80backed Bologna FC 1909 | 50c | 252$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +11%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe952…bde4backed FC Red Bull Salzburg | 44c | 250$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked FC Red Bull Salzburg | 37c | 245.9$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.73 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed FC Red Bull Salzburg | 53c | 241.44$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.96 | 522 | 43.9%229 W · 293 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x655d…b758backed Bologna FC 1909 | 50c | 220$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Bologna FC 1909 | 49c | 196.22$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.22 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25c2…e0cfbacked Bologna FC 1909 | 39c | 161.54$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.54 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed FC Red Bull Salzburg | 52c | 152.23$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.16 | 201 | 32.3%65 W · 136 L | -9.9wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3623…b50dbacked Bologna FC 1909 | 39c | 128.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.21 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed FC Red Bull Salzburg | 51c | 123.59$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.27 | 92 | 27.2%25 W · 67 L | -11.8wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -43%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x11f0…890dbacked FC Red Bull Salzburg | 52c | 119.99$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.39 | 78 | 50%39 W · 39 L | -4.8wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed FC Red Bull Salzburg | 51c | 113.33$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.72 | 338 | 47%159 W · 179 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca7…ce3bbacked FC Red Bull Salzburg | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -3.1wins | -0.15per pick | 30cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x499e…c968backed Bologna FC 1909 | 48c | 77.08$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.08 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb226…e227backed Bologna FC 1909 | 48c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Bologna FC 1909 | 46c | 53.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.89 | 449 | 52.6%236 W · 213 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e12…dd1dbacked Bologna FC 1909 | 50c | 33.89$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.89 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e3e…7fccbacked Bologna FC 1909 | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcce0…5fcabacked Bologna FC 1909 | 47c | 28.98$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.44 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +65.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x63ba…12d4backed FC Red Bull Salzburg | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe09e…9f48backed FC Red Bull Salzburg | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5c…b3f2backed Bologna FC 1909 | 49c | 22.86$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.71 | 101 | 43.6%44 W · 57 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Bologna FC 1909 (-1.5)this page
- Bologna FC 1909 vs. FC Red Bull Salzburg: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Bologna FC 1909 vs. FC Red Bull Salzburg: O/U 1.5Over won
- Bologna FC 1909 vs. FC Red Bull Salzburg: O/U 2.5Over won
- Bologna FC 1909 vs. FC Red Bull Salzburg: O/U 3.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.