Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Oregon Ducks vs. Gonzaga Bulldogs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x381d7aacd6d261b06a6d83561d3f95bfb0de5a7571858f91c2c7b1ca38ab1047
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Gonzaga Bulldogsof Oregon Ducks, Gonzaga Bulldogs
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,587
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,670
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,587 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Oregon Ducks | 18c | 1,484$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.25 | 2,048 | 32.7%670 W · 1,378 L | -16.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Oregon Ducks | 14c | 1,301$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.8 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Oregon Ducks | 10c | 1,184$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.55 | 1,887 | 45.2%853 W · 1,034 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Oregon Ducks | 8c | 1,011$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.2 | 490 | 43.1%211 W · 279 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d6d…aeb9backed Oregon Ducks | 20c | 1,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea81…eeaebacked Oregon Ducks | 13c | 997.61$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.39 | 1,227 | 27.8%341 W · 886 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Oregon Ducks | 10c | 884.13$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.45 | 2,555 | 41.6%1,062 W · 1,493 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Oregon Ducks | 12c | 827.29$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.77 | 529 | 28.4%150 W · 379 L | -9.2wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89f3…dfffbacked Oregon Ducks | 12c | 806.25$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.1 | 1,173 | 25.2%296 W · 877 L | -43.0wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Oregon Ducks | 10c | 420.31$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.03 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc079…8881backed Oregon Ducks | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83b8…ca3fbacked Oregon Ducks | 13c | 204.38$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7e5…fe31backed Oregon Ducks | 9c | 199.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 95 | 4.2%4 W · 91 L | -7.0wins | -0.07per pick | 12cpaid | -86%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Oregon Ducks | 13c | 195$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.35 | 574 | 48.3%277 W · 297 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f56…f1bbbacked Oregon Ducks | 13c | 192.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Oregon Ducks | 10c | 190$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 1,910 | 49.6%947 W · 963 L | +30.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe490…8e6cbacked Oregon Ducks | 17c | 171.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x187b…f545backed Oregon Ducks | 11c | 167.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.43 | 100 | 49%49 W · 51 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0c2…c482backed Oregon Ducks | 13c | 148.08$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d2e…bfa2backed Oregon Ducks | 15c | 130$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72ae…dd3cbacked Oregon Ducks | 18c | 110.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Oregon Ducks | 13c | 103$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 2,579 | 47.3%1,221 W · 1,358 L | -42.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe18c…37c1backed Oregon Ducks | 20c | 99.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -2.6wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -67%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8826…36d5backed Oregon Ducks | 20c | 83.25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Oregon Ducks | 16c | 67.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf303…e30ebacked Gonzaga Bulldogs | 80c | 18.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 79cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Oregon Ducks vs. Gonzaga Bulldogsthis page
- Oregon Ducks vs. Gonzaga Bulldogs: O/U 158.5Over won
- Spread: Gonzaga Bulldogs (-11.5)Oregon Ducks won
- Spread: Gonzaga Bulldogs (-12.5)Oregon Ducks won
- Spread: Gonzaga Bulldogs (-13.5)Oregon Ducks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.