Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Iowa State Cyclones (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x38341315fccb0ea0d524bb17df4826b95a57dd71341d83071d76a8dcec1cd1a1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Iowa State Cyclonesof Iowa State Cyclones, Baylor Bears
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,035
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,025
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,035 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x698b…4426backed Iowa State Cyclones | 49c | 2,000$980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,020.45 | 118 | 50%59 W · 59 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Baylor Bears | 51c | 1,219$622 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$621.92 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Iowa State Cyclones | 47c | 950.77$447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$503.91 | 616 | 52.8%325 W · 291 L | +21.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49b5…e5eebacked Baylor Bears | 53c | 595.34$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.53 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -3.3wins | -0.23per pick | 45cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x49d0…8503backed Baylor Bears | 54c | 555.65$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +151.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5834…f0cbbacked Baylor Bears | 53c | 300$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | -7.3wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Baylor Bears | 52c | 212$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.24 | 658 | 25.7%169 W · 489 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Baylor Bears | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 415 | 54.2%225 W · 190 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Iowa State Cyclones | 48c | 105$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.6 | 574 | 48.3%277 W · 297 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Iowa State Cyclones | 53c | 59.46$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.09 | 4,552 | 50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L | -36.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Baylor Bears | 51c | 55$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.05 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Baylor Bears | 53c | 46$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.38 | 1,436 | 47.5%682 W · 754 L | -18.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Iowa State Cyclones | 48c | 42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.89 | 1,124 | 46.4%521 W · 603 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…09d4backed Iowa State Cyclones | 48c | 37.12$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.12 | 200 | 51.5%103 W · 97 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40d8…73d9backed Iowa State Cyclones | 48c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.19per pick | 42cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Iowa State Cyclones (-4.5)this page
- Iowa State Cyclones vs. Baylor BearsIowa State Cyclones won
- Iowa State Cyclones vs. Baylor Bears: O/U 154.5Under won
- Iowa State Cyclones vs. Baylor Bears: O/U 155.5Under won
- Iowa State Cyclones vs. Baylor Bears: O/U 156.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.