Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on May 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3866556ddaaea7b1895916e775f456199108d9239d0c04dd746d478ba4113e3e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,763
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,775
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,763 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 15c | 374.64$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.12 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 21c | 295.41$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.66 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 70c | 165.55$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.35 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…957bbacked Yes | 64c | 164.28$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.68 | 370 | 56.5%209 W · 161 L | +31.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 50c | 150.14$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.21 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 50c | 119.47$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.58 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 52c | 112.71$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.78 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked No | 49c | 107.67$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.24 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a28…d58bbacked Yes | 21c | 97.15$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.14 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d2…6efcbacked Yes | 12c | 91$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.68 | 219 | 30.1%66 W · 153 L | +15.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 20c | 90.31$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.13 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 54c | 90$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.64 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed Yes | 56c | 80.04$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.25 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc62d…5577backed Yes | 47c | 79.52$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.92 | 250 | 38%95 W · 155 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 17c | 78.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 39c | 61.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.35 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…ac6bbacked No | 39c | 60.43$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.72 | 358 | 54.7%196 W · 162 L | -13.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 29c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.48 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked No | 25c | 54.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6acc…dacfbacked Yes | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +87.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 45c | 49.55$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.09 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 59c | 48.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.9 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 60c | 47.49$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.32 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 29c | 44.75$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.57 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfba0…a083backed Yes | 35c | 44.42$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec87…43f9backed No | 74c | 40.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.97 | 67 | 64.2%43 W · 24 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 40c | 37.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 80c | 36$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.23 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 43c | 34.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed No | 52c | 32.9$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.08 | 382 | 58.9%225 W · 157 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fd6…1733backed Yes | 74c | 30.71$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.87 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…e5debacked No | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 312 | 19.9%62 W · 250 L | -40.4wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 70c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.91 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 43c | 29.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.96 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac44…f420backed Yes | 42c | 28.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed Yes | 56c | 27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 407 | 39.3%160 W · 247 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 79c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20e7…84a7backed No | 47c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 16cpaid | -91.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafd0…a134backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81ab…5f31backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 289 | 46.4%134 W · 155 L | -14.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb232…771dbacked Yes | 79c | 19.05$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x506c…840cbacked Yes | 63c | 16.84$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.19 | 151 | 52.3%79 W · 72 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 78c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb305…3b41backed Yes | 65c | 15.47$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.45 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6192…48efbacked Yes | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 88 | 56.8%50 W · 38 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on May 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 70-71°F on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 74-75°F on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on May 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.