Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 98-99°F on July 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3879a384ca77ed9ec687c2e283cfb2f76dd209e9f6107bcbd975568f46ff6d50
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,444
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,296
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,444 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x000f…dc35backed Yes | 39c | 1,182$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459.79 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 34c | 1,120$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.9 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 61c | 608.44$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.27 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…2013backed No | 54c | 522.19$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.85 | 314 | 54.1%170 W · 144 L | +31.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 46c | 307.27$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.34 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 71c | 164.25$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.45 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 33c | 150.74$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.7 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 13c | 150.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.85 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 62c | 140.9$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.12 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked Yes | 34c | 132.4$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.43 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 45c | 123.69$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.66 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 64c | 115.8$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.69 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked Yes | 42c | 115$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.3 | 283 | 44.5%126 W · 157 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 58c | 108.34$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.59 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31af…5c86backed Yes | 34c | 100.23$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.41 | 318 | 36.8%117 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd17e…7a0cbacked Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 189 | 45.5%86 W · 103 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 56c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.5 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbc…e05dbacked No | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 172 | 55.2%95 W · 77 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 41c | 92.83$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.63 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 60c | 90$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 53c | 88.25$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.42 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 52c | 82.47$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.71 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 56c | 82.27$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.51 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 47c | 78.44$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.56 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5630…7574backed No | 56c | 77.79$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.51 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +4.3wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 47c | 76.83$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.87 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 47c | 76.75$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.71 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55bc…52d8backed Yes | 40c | 75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.75 | 68 | 39.7%27 W · 41 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 39c | 73.66$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.47 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 35c | 61.58$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.55 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 23c | 61.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 79c | 61$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.05 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8859…89d6backed Yes | 46c | 60.96$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.81 | 95 | 41.1%39 W · 56 L | -9.2wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 76c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.6 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.54 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 39c | 52.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.44 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9269…5731backed Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc865…7477backed Yes | 47c | 47.18$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.04 | 176 | 33.5%59 W · 117 L | -34.2wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 58c | 45.13$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.96 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 63c | 44.95$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.63 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 45c | 44.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 180 | 43.3%78 W · 102 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 64c | 42.3$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.23 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 57c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.07 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe49f…e66dbacked No | 55c | 39.14$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.61 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -6.8wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed Yes | 42c | 39.01$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.44 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed Yes | 47c | 38.66$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed No | 66c | 37.88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 64c | 36.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.43 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed Yes | 40c | 33.71$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 66c | 28.5$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.56 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 61c | 27.73$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.82 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd338…9fd3backed Yes | 39c | 27.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 69c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.81 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 60c | 24.17$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.57 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x831a…ad82backed No | 51c | 23.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4699…695abacked No | 78c | 23.08$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.08 | 120 | 72.5%87 W · 33 L | +8.3wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0b72…dc2ebacked No | 52c | 20.92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.99 | 284 | 41.5%118 W · 166 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3286…1acdbacked No | 57c | 20.7$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x847c…9ff8backed No | 74c | 20.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 225 | 50.2%113 W · 112 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 293 | 54.3%159 W · 134 L | -25.6wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcb53…fde7backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.13 | 259 | 54.1%140 W · 119 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 61c | 19.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.57 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 60c | 19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 62c | 16.14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 98-99°F on July 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 100-101°F on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on July 4?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.