Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 64-65°F on May 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x387b08c0df3ae77fef0a4edb8156743759d66e69d22c88fe6382fb2b4d43eaac
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,391
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,805
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,391 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf381…40c2backed Yes | 22c | 1,382$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.08 | 94 | 36.2%34 W · 60 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked Yes | 1c | 1,028$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc018…b251backed Yes | 2c | 819.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 111 | 38.7%43 W · 68 L | +9.2wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6c5f…a235backed No | 75c | 300$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 111 | 48.6%54 W · 57 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 12c | 254.58$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.49 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 12c | 235.11$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.85 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed Yes | 21c | 230.96$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.5 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 79c | 200$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 22c | 191.09$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.92 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked Yes | 12c | 132.11$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.56 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 39c | 123.15$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.54 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 11c | 97.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 12c | 86.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x17f4…db67backed Yes | 22c | 77.78$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.03 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 25cpaid | +53.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 15c | 70.74$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x240d…5f3cbacked No | 72c | 67$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.76 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 22c | 66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.34 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5079…5988backed No | 72c | 66$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.48 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 62c | 57.3$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.58 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 22c | 55.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf4e…426fbacked Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c9e…8d54backed No | 78c | 49$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.78 | 276 | 69.2%191 W · 85 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f85…1774backed Yes | 28c | 46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 62cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67f4…df0fbacked No | 78c | 38.53$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.53 | 102 | 65.7%67 W · 35 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 72cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xabb5…de0cbacked No | 79c | 37.94$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.94 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -5.0wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x10c7…efa6backed Yes | 28c | 37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.45 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c000backed No | 78c | 25.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.71 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 67c | 25.69$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8961…ab1abacked No | 75c | 25.33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.33 | 254 | 66.9%170 W · 84 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 79c | 25.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked No | 59c | 24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.84 | 270 | 50.4%136 W · 134 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 79c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.68 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 71c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47cf…5732backed No | 76c | 19.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.75 | 61 | 60.7%37 W · 24 L | -5.6wins | -0.09per pick | 70cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa921…f0eabacked No | 64c | 17.19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.19 | 93 | 62.4%58 W · 35 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6086…a5f9backed No | 61c | 17.02$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.64 | 310 | 50.3%156 W · 154 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 64-65°F on May 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 74°F or higher on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 56-57°F on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 62-63°F on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on May 28?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on May 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.