Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x38aa335e72a92866e5f0e78401fb94de73573ee805a9b4204d3896fe45dfcf67
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nigma Galaxyof Nigma Galaxy, MODUS
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,919
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,535
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,919 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed MODUS | 17c | 8,131$1,407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,406.68 | 457 | 50.8%232 W · 225 L | +14.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ce…a57abacked Nigma Galaxy | 79c | 2,029$1,606 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$423.47 | 1,202 | 59.3%713 W · 489 L | +64.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2924…0f31backed MODUS | 19c | 1,066$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.84 | 470 | 46.6%219 W · 251 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Nigma Galaxy | 80c | 1,055$839 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.46 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked MODUS | 3c | 968.59$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.27 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x473f…9892backed MODUS | 17c | 894.47$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.02 | 500 | 53%265 W · 235 L | +14.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ef…ca6bbacked MODUS | 24c | 600.9$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.26 | 1,066 | 57%608 W · 458 L | +52.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d18…2b3dbacked Nigma Galaxy | 80c | 531.15$422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.83 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 73cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaee…8559backed Nigma Galaxy | 80c | 506.84$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.37 | 183 | 56.8%104 W · 79 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3d…cfffbacked Nigma Galaxy | 77c | 500$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115 | 367 | 59.1%217 W · 150 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03f4…7e44backed MODUS | 21c | 500$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.5 | 568 | 52.5%298 W · 270 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x913c…39b3backed MODUS | 21c | 487.13$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.93 | 714 | 54.5%389 W · 325 L | +55.6wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…165bbacked MODUS | 13c | 475.69$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.7 | 1,275 | 33.5%427 W · 848 L | -15.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c8…fc02backed MODUS | 20c | 332.27$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.66 | 306 | 47.4%145 W · 161 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Nigma Galaxy | 73c | 226.54$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.51 | 138 | 50%69 W · 69 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…5417backed Nigma Galaxy | 73c | 196.76$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.13 | 479 | 51.8%248 W · 231 L | +17.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f08…e919backed MODUS | 19c | 190.22$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 308 | 34.1%105 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2494…17b3backed MODUS | 24c | 156.45$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.19 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x812a…73edbacked MODUS | 22c | 144.89$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.43 | 372 | 23.1%86 W · 286 L | -38.2wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8cfc…4f30backed Nigma Galaxy | 80c | 98.8$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.76 | 377 | 45.4%171 W · 206 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed Nigma Galaxy | 77c | 80$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed MODUS | 15c | 66.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,034 | 16.3%169 W · 865 L | -158.1wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Nigma Galaxy | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 273 | 57.1%156 W · 117 L | +9.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ab…16d0backed Nigma Galaxy | 77c | 21.52$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.84 | 430 | 67%288 W · 142 L | +31.9wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7b25…10aabacked Nigma Galaxy | 80c | 20.67$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.13 | 279 | 52.3%146 W · 133 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs MODUS - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs MODUS (BO3) - DreamLeague Division 2 Group ANigma Galaxy won
- Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs MODUS - Game 1 WinnerNigma Galaxy won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.