Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs MODUS (BO3) - DreamLeague Division 2 Group A
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaa9b4783878ccbe90a0bcccbcf42bd6d1e549d8d3f9910a6cc7e49dc9e76e185
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nigma Galaxyof Nigma Galaxy, MODUS
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,418
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,588
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,418 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbfee…ed1fbacked MODUS | 5c | 9,467$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448.1 | 106 | 18.9%20 W · 86 L | -14.0wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -52%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed MODUS | 5c | 7,687$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.33 | 457 | 50.8%232 W · 225 L | +14.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a95…343bbacked MODUS | 14c | 1,222$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.1 | 698 | 35.2%246 W · 452 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked MODUS | 4c | 1,111$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.98 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2924…0f31backed MODUS | 5c | 1,037$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.87 | 470 | 46.6%219 W · 251 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f36…2819backed MODUS | 10c | 924.28$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4fa…4a86backed MODUS | 7c | 765.65$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.1 | 27 | 7.4%2 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x812a…73edbacked MODUS | 11c | 486$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.66 | 372 | 23.1%86 W · 286 L | -38.2wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x47a3…2a55backed MODUS | 13c | 316.29$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa74a…4893backed MODUS | 8c | 300.88$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.44 | 361 | 38.2%138 W · 223 L | -20.4wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…c7a2backed MODUS | 14c | 204.92$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.69 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e2b…19a4backed MODUS | 14c | 148.49$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.79 | 42 | 11.9%5 W · 37 L | -9.6wins | -0.23per pick | 35cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x49ec…ac1cbacked MODUS | 15c | 132.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.04 | 127 | 40.9%52 W · 75 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b02…e0babacked MODUS | 10c | 124.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | -5.6wins | -0.18per pick | 41cpaid | -44%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x736d…c635backed MODUS | 14c | 96.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 971 | 42.7%415 W · 556 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs MODUS (BO3) - DreamLeague Division 2 Group Athis page
- Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs MODUS - Game 1 WinnerNigma Galaxy won
- Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs MODUS - Game 2 WinnerNigma Galaxy won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.