College Football · resolved market
O/U 39.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x38bf21719226730bd0f2bc46071f9054a44b3c23ca1f90527a9f21da73914d71
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,164
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,164
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,164 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Over | 47c | 7,973$3,746 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,226.8 | 684 | 40.8%279 W · 405 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…5b15backed Under | 53c | 7,447$3,947 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,946.81 | 115 | 53%61 W · 54 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Under | 54c | 4,000$2,160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,160 | 290 | 55.2%160 W · 130 L | +10.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x733d…1ae7backed Over | 47c | 2,000$940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,060 | 71 | 33.8%24 W · 47 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Under | 50c | 1,747$874 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$873.5 | 818 | 47.9%392 W · 426 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 47c | 1,520$711 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$808.32 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb820…cbe7backed Over | 50c | 1,229$615 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$614.5 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +5.5wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Under | 56c | 360$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.6 | 224 | 37.5%84 W · 140 L | -17.3wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5c…0182backed Over | 50c | 333.65$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.83 | 147 | 43.5%64 W · 83 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x699c…3600backed Under | 52c | 229$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.08 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Over | 48c | 200$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 422 | 44.5%188 W · 234 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 53c | 190$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.7 | 568 | 44.5%253 W · 315 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked Over | 50c | 184.35$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.18 | 268 | 46.3%124 W · 144 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Over | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 632 | 43.7%276 W · 356 L | +34.8wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +138.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 47c | 91.89$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.7 | 588 | 50.2%295 W · 293 L | +23.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…bdecbacked Over | 48c | 78$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.56 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a4…aeb8backed Over | 48c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37ab…3cd1backed Over | 50c | 57.84$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.92 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9acf…bd74backed Over | 48c | 55$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.6 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.34per pick | 49cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8d4e…8163backed Under | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32d6…844bbacked Under | 52c | 43$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.36 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x51c1…4d62backed Over | 50c | 41.08$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.54 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +94.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3db3…09a3backed Over | 49c | 40.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.6 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d78…4756backed Over | 48c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Under | 51c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 524 | 49.4%259 W · 265 L | -2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xede6…89c4backed Over | 48c | 21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.24per pick | 47cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- O/U 39.5this page
- Miami (OH) vs. BuffaloMiami (OH) won
- Miami (OH) vs. Buffalo: O/U 38.5Over won
- Spread: Miami (OH) (-1.5)Miami (OH) won
- Spread: Miami (OH) (-2.5)Miami (OH) won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.