College Football · resolved market
Spread: Miami (OH) (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd978560beb815e4cea8f863641f04daca31e99fec85c8d758d78cfa0cc6eb2ae
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Miami (OH)of Miami (OH), Buffalo
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $47,774
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,774
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,774 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9165…5b98backed Miami (OH) | 50c | 30,050$15,025 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,025 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4335…fc2fbacked Buffalo | 50c | 30,000$15,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,000 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c6f…89b9backed Buffalo | 50c | 10,985$5,493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,492.5 | 98 | 44.9%44 W · 54 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5c…0182backed Miami (OH) | 50c | 10,100$5,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,050 | 147 | 43.5%64 W · 83 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Miami (OH) | 50c | 3,800$1,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,900 | 935 | 48.4%453 W · 482 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed Buffalo | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 115 | 41.7%48 W · 67 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x733d…1ae7backed Buffalo | 50c | 1,800$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 71 | 33.8%24 W · 47 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Miami (OH) | 49c | 1,676$821 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$855 | 588 | 50.2%295 W · 293 L | +23.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcea6…67adbacked Buffalo | 51c | 980.39$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x685a…0260backed Buffalo | 51c | 932.31$471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35b9…1d44backed Miami (OH) | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -3.6wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Miami (OH) | 50c | 460$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230 | 173 | 61.3%106 W · 67 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f9…86ecbacked Miami (OH) | 49c | 323.71$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.09 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x502b…a1d5backed Buffalo | 51c | 250$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.5 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Miami (OH) | 49c | 200$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 422 | 44.5%188 W · 234 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Miami (OH) | 50c | 180$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 302 | 53%160 W · 142 L | +10.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06eb…1a5fbacked Buffalo | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Buffalo | 49c | 78.43$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.43 | 153 | 52.3%80 W · 73 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7795…1db8backed Miami (OH) | 51c | 78.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.43 | 88 | 68.2%60 W · 28 L | +10.5wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…01a4backed Buffalo | 51c | 72.55$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c1…012cbacked Buffalo | 51c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 73 | 52.1%38 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf782…6849backed Buffalo | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97f1…c325backed Buffalo | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Miami (OH) (-2.5)this page
- Miami (OH) vs. BuffaloMiami (OH) won
- Miami (OH) vs. Buffalo: O/U 38.5Over won
- O/U 39.5Over won
- Spread: Miami (OH) (-1.5)Miami (OH) won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.