Tennis · resolved market
Set 1 Winner: Travaglia vs Poljicak
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x38c0036de8a01788717888c69aafc681e03060c872ffa884e454e37b3f70f80d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Travagliaof Travaglia, Poljicak
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,008
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,008 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xff80…8cb5backed Poljicak | 42c | 1,017$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430 | 115 | 30.4%35 W · 80 L | -10.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Travaglia | 57c | 584.62$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.63 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Poljicak | 39c | 434.22$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.47 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda74…1ab0backed Poljicak | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 945 | 49.6%469 W · 476 L | -23.7wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4132…ec44backed Travaglia | 68c | 108.97$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.97 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +55.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x893d…d65bbacked Travaglia | 67c | 105.16$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.16 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Travaglia | 62c | 104.29$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.63 | 1,258 | 50%629 W · 629 L | -4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Travaglia | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 372 | 30.4%113 W · 259 L | -12.0wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc53…2bb7backed Travaglia | 68c | 91.31$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.31 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d87…809cbacked Travaglia | 67c | 70.7$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56cd…2ddcbacked Travaglia | 74c | 66.22$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.22 | 232 | 49.1%114 W · 118 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc539…5ec2backed Poljicak | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 328 | 43.9%144 W · 184 L | -11.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed6d…d729backed Travaglia | 73c | 43.65$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -3.8wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6924…1455backed Travaglia | 67c | 41.79$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.79 | 73 | 63%46 W · 27 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x798e…4df3backed Poljicak | 34c | 33.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa574…4596backed Travaglia | 73c | 32.88$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf112…21ebbacked Travaglia | 59c | 25.92$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.53 | 138 | 64.5%89 W · 49 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4139…8622backed Poljicak | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca4a…338abacked Travaglia | 67c | 15.96$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 136 | 48.5%66 W · 70 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set 1 Winner: Travaglia vs Poljicakthis page
- Stefano Travaglia vs. Mili Poljicak: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Travaglia vs. Poljicak: Match O/U 22.5Over won
- Travaglia vs. Poljicak: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Over won
- Zadar: Stefano Travaglia vs Mili PoljicakStefano Travaglia won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.