Ukraine · resolved market
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy say "War" 5+ times during his Baier interview?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x38ef216e67900f2618bc2beec2fc2e001674c64b1798aa88831943a38e26f51d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,178
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,170
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,178 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2880…fa70backed Yes | 64c | 844.25$537 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.05 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 4c | 531.28$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.96 | 72 | 9.7%7 W · 65 L | -5.8wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5091…23e9backed No | 35c | 500$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8c…e69dbacked Yes | 51c | 489.58$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.89 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…c585backed No | 38c | 331.72$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.26 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc45…13bdbacked Yes | 59c | 300$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.36 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a14…d748backed No | 49c | 269.49$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.03 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed No | 37c | 261.99$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.18 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5da1…980bbacked No | 40c | 201.07$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.43 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x581d…24c3backed No | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe89…b88cbacked No | 41c | 60.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c6c…806bbacked No | 41c | 39.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.25per pick | 65cpaid | -44%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91a2…2e32backed Yes | 61c | 38.59$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +62.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2d9…c496backed Yes | 60c | 32.3$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.92 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ace…ed20backed Yes | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb090…14c7backed Yes | 58c | 19.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd35…2bb6backed Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy say "War" 5+ times during his Baier interview?this page
- Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy say "Biden" 3+ times during his Baier interview?No won
- Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy say "Ceasefire" 5+ times during his Baier interview?No won
- Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during his Baier interview?No won
- Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy say "Peace" 2+ times during his Baier interview?Yes won
- Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy say "Putin" 5+ times during his Baier interview?Yes won
- Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy say "US" or "United States" 5+ times during his Baier interview?Yes won
- Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy say "Ukraine" 10+ times during his Baier interview?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.