Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: (monkey) Business vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - EPL Championship Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3924e7028e94a5ae4b66149722e5e8fef0d4d1531e63ec02e8086fe33f66c453
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yellow Submarineof (monkey) Business, Yellow Submarine
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,493
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,575
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,493 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x42b7…77dcbacked (monkey) Business | 50c | 2,681$1,331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,331.17 | 998 | 44.4%443 W · 555 L | +21.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed Yellow Submarine | 45c | 788.98$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430.05 | 1,577 | 43.9%692 W · 885 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4f…46c2backed Yellow Submarine | 48c | 787.85$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.05 | 360 | 54.4%196 W · 164 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Yellow Submarine | 44c | 549.27$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.59 | 128 | 43.8%56 W · 72 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60b4…6313backed Yellow Submarine | 48c | 448.61$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.76 | 161 | 60.2%97 W · 64 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yellow Submarine | 41c | 388.15$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.01 | 738 | 41.7%308 W · 430 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe42b…7ea9backed Yellow Submarine | 47c | 351.16$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.11 | 465 | 35.1%163 W · 302 L | +22.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf802…d91dbacked (monkey) Business | 13c | 175.78$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.85 | 120 | 50.8%61 W · 59 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa824…c9fcbacked (monkey) Business | 57c | 175.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 180 | 53.3%96 W · 84 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0659…d74dbacked Yellow Submarine | 47c | 160.86$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.82 | 858 | 51.3%440 W · 418 L | +30.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe174…f74bbacked Yellow Submarine | 46c | 150$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.26per pick | 34cpaid | +106.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed (monkey) Business | 51c | 150$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.5 | 779 | 41.1%320 W · 459 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd365…d5d7backed (monkey) Business | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4dc…d394backed Yellow Submarine | 44c | 131$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.36 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed Yellow Submarine | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 491 | 33.6%165 W · 326 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92b5…2defbacked (monkey) Business | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 958 | 41.1%394 W · 564 L | +32.7wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40ba…7ea5backed Yellow Submarine | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.15 | 537 | 57.7%310 W · 227 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb27…8be8backed (monkey) Business | 20c | 78.73$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.85 | 182 | 48.4%88 W · 94 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Yellow Submarine | 58c | 77.61$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.6 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked (monkey) Business | 51c | 75.1$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.07 | 869 | 49%426 W · 443 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…649fbacked Yellow Submarine | 42c | 60.23$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.23 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.9wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +58.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked (monkey) Business | 53c | 59.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 702 | 36.6%257 W · 445 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa72e…3db9backed Yellow Submarine | 47c | 53.19$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.19 | 71 | 43.7%31 W · 40 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c55…84cebacked (monkey) Business | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 92 | 44.6%41 W · 51 L | -6.0wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xced8…221ebacked (monkey) Business | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 228 | 45.6%104 W · 124 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xace6…5556backed (monkey) Business | 57c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 233 | 47.2%110 W · 123 L | -15.1wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf104…d34cbacked Yellow Submarine | 50c | 38.71$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.36 | 110 | 52.7%58 W · 52 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x13e9…7eebbacked Yellow Submarine | 47c | 38.32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.31 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked (monkey) Business | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 404 | 42.3%171 W · 233 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec48…d04cbacked (monkey) Business | 56c | 35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95d8…2922backed (monkey) Business | 58c | 29.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.11 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3494…04f4backed Yellow Submarine | 48c | 29.15$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.16 | 118 | 36.4%43 W · 75 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa4…b6a4backed (monkey) Business | 56c | 29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 61cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab2c…0ab7backed (monkey) Business | 56c | 29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41ae…bdfcbacked (monkey) Business | 56c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bcb…b05abacked Yellow Submarine | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 380 | 49.2%187 W · 193 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +168.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x063c…d642backed (monkey) Business | 56c | 19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 57cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: (monkey) Business vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - EPL Championship Playoffsthis page
- Dota 2: (monkey) Business vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 WinnerYellow Submarine won
- Dota 2: (monkey) Business vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 WinnerYellow Submarine won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.