La Liga · resolved market
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2025-12-04?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3953abf1eaa2104ee4dddb3195f6192ed65e55fcdd6514ec311ea9d762b8c874
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,732
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,334
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,732 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x02f9…2e3bbacked Yes | 78c | 1,522$1,180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,180.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 23c | 1,375$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,063.76 | 1,798 | 51.4%924 W · 874 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 2c | 1,351$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.01 | 3,449 | 43%1,484 W · 1,965 L | +32.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 56c | 517.17$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.51 | 4,740 | 47%2,230 W · 2,510 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe952…bde4backed Yes | 67c | 500$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -3.5wins | -0.25per pick | 46cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc443…359bbacked Yes | 28c | 322.67$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 216 | 41.7%90 W · 126 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 33c | 300.2$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.21 | 559 | 41.1%230 W · 329 L | -11.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x064a…9c2fbacked Yes | 74c | 257.28$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.17per pick | 61cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked No | 25c | 199.99$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.99 | 95 | 45.3%43 W · 52 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0caf…abfebacked Yes | 58c | 172.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -4.8wins | -0.19per pick | 55cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x426e…acd0backed Yes | 53c | 110$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.3 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x19bc…7d78backed No | 56c | 88.94$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.48 | 78 | 51.3%40 W · 38 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Yes | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 265 | 45.3%120 W · 145 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked No | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.97 | 238 | 55.9%133 W · 105 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf64…92bdbacked Yes | 73c | 68.8$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 35c | 67.08$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.59 | 836 | 50.7%424 W · 412 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5942…5641backed No | 29c | 53.69$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.12 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | +5.1wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +59.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed No | 25c | 53.36$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.02 | 791 | 33%261 W · 530 L | -8.9wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd470…783ebacked No | 28c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…74c0backed Yes | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 196 | 52.6%103 W · 93 L | -15.6wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2025-12-04?this page
- Will Real Ávila CF vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid end in a draw?Yes won
- Will Real Ávila CF win on 2025-12-04?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.