Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 72-73°F on April 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x39af124322f376657e0e474a4c9e1764fbbab97421aff6055cb24dff1cf7ad9a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,512
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,916
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,512 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 36c | 322.3$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.26 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 39c | 232.52$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.5 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaebe…2c1dbacked Yes | 19c | 224.21$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.58 | 90 | 47.8%43 W · 47 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x035a…ff68backed No | 66c | 152.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.69 | 315 | 42.9%135 W · 180 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 32c | 130.75$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.67 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 14c | 120$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.6 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5245…00c4backed Yes | 49c | 92.47$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.55 | 296 | 40.5%120 W · 176 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 71c | 91.44$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.79 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 35c | 78.26$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.15 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 25c | 74.81$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.13 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 73c | 69.29$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.54 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91ef…b0f2backed Yes | 15c | 66.44$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.39 | 168 | 32.7%55 W · 113 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 53c | 66.06$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.32 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb537…14ccbacked No | 67c | 57.19$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.28 | 414 | 60.1%249 W · 165 L | -21.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd0d…df1ebacked Yes | 45c | 46.2$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.41 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…faeabacked Yes | 32c | 42.57$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.07 | 311 | 70.7%220 W · 91 L | +42.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked Yes | 36c | 39.36$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.09 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4a3…2fe6backed No | 74c | 35.98$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.79 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -3.1wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8f12…7057backed No | 72c | 33.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.47 | 192 | 59.9%115 W · 77 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa48a…fa82backed No | 55c | 33.67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.52 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -3.8wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 59c | 33.49$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.78 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 50c | 30.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.49 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x359a…c74cbacked No | 65c | 29.83$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.29 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fff…8f49backed No | 51c | 28.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 59 | 32.2%19 W · 40 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefdf…97edbacked No | 59c | 24.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 53c | 23.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c1…51f6backed Yes | 47c | 22.4$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.82 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7baa…6c58backed Yes | 50c | 20.72$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.27 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2ca…b823backed No | 48c | 20.64$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fec…be3dbacked No | 61c | 20.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 90 | 56.7%51 W · 39 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x131d…2a50backed Yes | 51c | 20.22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.91 | 103 | 35.9%37 W · 66 L | -15.3wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 67c | 17.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd04e…6982backed No | 67c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 72-73°F on April 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 68-69°F on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 70-71°F on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 74-75°F on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 76-77°F on April 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.