NHL · resolved market
Avalanche vs. Red Wings: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x39ddf2776af2f3da8288013ee858400e76a6e69366f90dbe4b8331aadaf56d21
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,158
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,134
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,158 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 48c | 8,609$4,112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,111.55 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9fe…366bbacked Under | 52c | 7,500$3,923 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,576.64 | 255 | 52.5%134 W · 121 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Under | 52c | 1,471$764 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$706.99 | 793 | 50.1%397 W · 396 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12d9…01bbbacked Over | 41c | 1,279$527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$527.27 | 185 | 47%87 W · 98 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10d4…d953backed Under | 59c | 1,000$590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410 | 445 | 51.2%228 W · 217 L | +16.4wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 50c | 993.18$497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$496.65 | 916 | 53.9%494 W · 422 L | +39.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Under | 50c | 634.36$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.96 | 130 | 49.2%64 W · 66 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 54c | 577.01$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.12 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2060…9186backed Over | 51c | 402.63$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.34 | 308 | 55.5%171 W · 137 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Under | 58c | 344.83$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.83 | 154 | 31.8%49 W · 105 L | -12.4wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x237b…dcc0backed Over | 49c | 311.31$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.54 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | -4.7wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xba5a…344cbacked Over | 49c | 306.97$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 121 | 52.9%64 W · 57 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 45c | 257.2$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.93 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Over | 50c | 250$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 237 | 51.5%122 W · 115 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 40c | 205.8$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.32 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 624 | 47.3%295 W · 329 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 45c | 167.52$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.83 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…0544backed Under | 49c | 137.99$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.37 | 334 | 47.9%160 W · 174 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Over | 51c | 123$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.36 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Over | 47c | 121$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.87 | 1,140 | 51.5%587 W · 553 L | +40.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 40c | 105.5$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.2 | 1,028 | 53.2%547 W · 481 L | +21.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 41c | 104.72$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.72 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9637…a576backed Over | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd272…fa58backed Over | 57c | 85.67$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.83 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 47c | 85.46$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.1 | 451 | 51.2%231 W · 220 L | +16.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Over | 49c | 82.77$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.79 | 262 | 43.5%114 W · 148 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…fe46backed Over | 50c | 62$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 111 | 53.2%59 W · 52 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b41…01c7backed Under | 53c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.33 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb53…c50bbacked Over | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 152 | 36.2%55 W · 97 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Under | 61c | 51.31$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.78 | 139 | 54%75 W · 64 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 425 | 58.6%249 W · 176 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Over | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 598 | 52.3%313 W · 285 L | +34.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x44f0…432cbacked Over | 47c | 47$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.09 | 125 | 48.8%61 W · 64 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3b…3b15backed Under | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 56cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 50c | 35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x064e…4347backed Over | 49c | 34.08$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 93 | 46.2%43 W · 50 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Under | 46c | 33.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.03 | 336 | 47.9%161 W · 175 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca2b…3489backed Under | 50c | 31.8$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 59 | 39%23 W · 36 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac27…18e7backed Over | 51c | 30.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 96 | 49%47 W · 49 L | -6.4wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c16…630fbacked Under | 58c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +3.6wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6da1…d6bcbacked Over | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1304…138cbacked Over | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ce…7ec8backed Under | 52c | 27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.97 | 623 | 46.9%292 W · 331 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x828c…fb4cbacked Over | 47c | 24.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f19…ec51backed Under | 68c | 24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 69 | 46.4%32 W · 37 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Over | 51c | 21.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 696 | 53.4%372 W · 324 L | -16.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Avalanche vs. Red Wings: O/U 6.5this page
- Avalanche vs. Red WingsAvalanche won
- Spread: Avalanche (-1.5)Avalanche won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.