Tennis · resolved market
Hobart International, Qualification: Renata Zarazua vs Simona Waltert
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3a4d1a8081c96e21a8ada6c73c68d329d60e0c56e8d684e4fdc928e5f65b8c9c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Zarazuaof Zarazua, Waltert
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,527
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,620
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,527 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9fa9…c100backed Waltert | 45c | 5,000$2,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,250 | 430 | 51.2%220 W · 210 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6c…7e66backed Zarazua | 55c | 4,343$2,388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,954.12 | 1,193 | 48.9%583 W · 610 L | +9.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Zarazua | 78c | 1,171$908 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.87 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a7…2193backed Waltert | 23c | 1,049$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Zarazua | 59c | 351.54$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.79 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Waltert | 45c | 283.98$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.19 | 2,068 | 34.9%721 W · 1,347 L | -44.2wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Waltert | 16c | 182.88$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.74 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf2…d280backed Zarazua | 54c | 127.29$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.32 | 658 | 49.4%325 W · 333 L | +8.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Zarazua | 53c | 120$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.4 | 730 | 48.8%356 W · 374 L | -18.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Waltert | 47c | 120$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.4 | 551 | 43.4%239 W · 312 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Zarazua | 76c | 110.5$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.52 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd995…9bcbbacked Zarazua | 55c | 109.09$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.09 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa77a…e6f9backed Zarazua | 73c | 98.3$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.54 | 214 | 48.1%103 W · 111 L | -13.9wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d11…0c08backed Zarazua | 59c | 86.27$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.57 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8b…d3d6backed Waltert | 24c | 76.81$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 69 | 18.8%13 W · 56 L | -11.0wins | -0.16per pick | 35cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Waltert | 26c | 74.54$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 276 | 27.2%75 W · 201 L | -25.2wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x70ac…0c7dbacked Waltert | 41c | 58.05$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.55 | 2,537 | 53.6%1,361 W · 1,176 L | +61.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf642…0c19backed Zarazua | 59c | 55.93$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.93 | 67 | 32.8%22 W · 45 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Zarazua | 72c | 54.2$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.19 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b89…baa4backed Waltert | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe759…3648backed Zarazua | 49c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 155 | 51.6%80 W · 75 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Zarazua | 60c | 38.78$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.65 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…5557backed Zarazua | 54c | 26.51$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.19 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7789…d6c0backed Waltert | 51c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 94 | 55.3%52 W · 42 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.