College Football · resolved market
Spread: Utah State (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3a6f84acabbf4d3d6a1e0d3d603366eaf75f1605e4302b9bfecf0cb4c3fa4d8b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Hawaiiof Utah State, Hawaii
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,328
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,328
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,328 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Utah State | 50c | 10,000$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 272 | 46%125 W · 147 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Hawaii | 50c | 9,980$4,990 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,990 | 104 | 48.1%50 W · 54 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Hawaii | 50c | 1,489$745 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$744.61 | 859 | 47.7%410 W · 449 L | +14.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Utah State | 2c | 1,225$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.75 | 224 | 4%9 W · 215 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa097…fba7backed Utah State | 51c | 587.31$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Utah State | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 98 | 43.9%43 W · 55 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Utah State | 49c | 428.14$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.43 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Hawaii | 51c | 392.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.16 | 290 | 55.2%160 W · 130 L | +10.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Hawaii | 49c | 232.43$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.21 | 377 | 49.6%187 W · 190 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1498…a10bbacked Utah State | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Hawaii | 48c | 152.04$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.98 | 756 | 51.9%392 W · 364 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd1…009bbacked Utah State | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf395…ac0abacked Hawaii | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcc…b19fbacked Hawaii | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…3363backed Hawaii | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Utah State | 68c | 16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 632 | 43.7%276 W · 356 L | +34.8wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +138.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Utah State (-1.5)this page
- Utah State vs. HawaiiHawaii won
- Utah State vs. Hawaii: O/U 56.5Over won
- Utah State vs. Hawaii: O/U 57.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.