Tennis · resolved market
Set 1 Winner: Galan vs Midon
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3a890da5f50a70db29c1d8898b6e9004eb52d985f0c7bc5b63742f9bb8d2c025
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Midonof Galan, Midon
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,028
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,064
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,028 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 11 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0f2c…ac5ebacked Midon | 46c | 124$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.96 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +3.7wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd748…dd55backed Galan | 51c | 54$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.54 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e44…3cefbacked Galan | 54c | 39$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.06 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -3.6wins | -0.26per pick | 54cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x985b…6b7fbacked Midon | 50c | 39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.49 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x597f…e9cfbacked Galan | 54c | 33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0c3…78dfbacked Midon | 51c | 32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.68 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb1e…def5backed Midon | 50c | 32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 59cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e04…3fb0backed Midon | 50c | 31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.63 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9783…d484backed Galan | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +36%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6afa…cc0dbacked Midon | 50c | 27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.52 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 63cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7399…fe96backed Galan | 54c | 26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set 1 Winner: Galan vs Midonthis page
- Argentina Open, Qualification: Daniel Galan vs Lautaro MidonMidon won
- Set Handicap: Galan (-1.5) vs Midon (+1.5)Midon won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.