Tennis · resolved market
ITF Laval: Duncan Chan vs Timo Legout
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3ac711caaf6febd641c92a65ee3d8b08e1b1d5f98df987b0631f5422b5a980e0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Timo Legoutof Duncan Chan, Timo Legout
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,243
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,133
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,243 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc07d…b1dfbacked Timo Legout | 63c | 1,514$947 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$566.31 | 2,383 | 55.6%1,326 W · 1,057 L | +49.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x168c…f24bbacked Timo Legout | 59c | 840.95$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.95 | 624 | 57.7%360 W · 264 L | -17.8wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Duncan Chan | 51c | 751$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.53 | 2,761 | 53.9%1,487 W · 1,274 L | +73.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Duncan Chan | 41c | 600$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9455…7defbacked Duncan Chan | 18c | 277.78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 960 | 49.5%475 W · 485 L | +16.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fd9…039bbacked Duncan Chan | 18c | 222.22$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1,008 | 38.3%386 W · 622 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…46b1backed Duncan Chan | 39c | 191.94$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.86 | 5,261 | 28.8%1,514 W · 3,747 L | -19.4wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2326…b627backed Timo Legout | 80c | 159.01$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.17 | 1,256 | 65.4%821 W · 435 L | +11.4wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0796backed Duncan Chan | 11c | 158.56$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.24 | 1,234 | 46.3%571 W · 663 L | +8.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed Duncan Chan | 52c | 142$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.84 | 1,276 | 61%778 W · 498 L | +27.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Timo Legout | 76c | 120.2$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.72 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed Duncan Chan | 18c | 96$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 921 | 38.4%354 W · 567 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Duncan Chan | 41c | 92.04$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.74 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x747f…f2d7backed Timo Legout | 59c | 43.03$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.64 | 901 | 52.3%471 W · 430 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Duncan Chan | 45c | 39.64$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.68 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x186a…559dbacked Timo Legout | 57c | 34.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.79 | 449 | 52.8%237 W · 212 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbd…d0dfbacked Duncan Chan | 52c | 31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 214 | 47.2%101 W · 113 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf442…2581backed Timo Legout | 67c | 19.01$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.34 | 72 | 75%54 W · 18 L | +11.5wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.