Tennis · resolved market
Sinner vs. Medvedev: Match O/U 21.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3acde45bb0cbbc8d678b753c4200f283dd4fca4716b0195883a79d99b1583d34
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,995
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,323
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,995 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8165…59d0backed Under | 69c | 554.99$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.99 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -17%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4af7…2381backed Over | 33c | 511.62$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.62 | 99 | 41.4%41 W · 58 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3c…2f57backed Over | 36c | 412.81$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.95 | 307 | 40.7%125 W · 182 L | -23.3wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 13c | 288.45$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.95 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1231…1c15backed Under | 69c | 216.75$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9073…13b3backed Under | 67c | 204.99$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.29 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Under | 64c | 199.99$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.99 | 354 | 39.8%141 W · 213 L | -15.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa1…8ba9backed Over | 33c | 199.99$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.99 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.18per pick | 28cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5fac…6b48backed Under | 64c | 171.88$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Over | 13c | 153.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.85 | 1,417 | 45.2%640 W · 777 L | +41.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…7525backed Over | 13c | 150$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.5 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.34per pick | 41cpaid | +114.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7e…70ecbacked Over | 29c | 144.29$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 1,001 | 45.4%454 W · 547 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc470…c792backed Over | 35c | 113.49$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.49 | 1,504 | 35.1%528 W · 976 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Over | 30c | 96.57$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.27 | 1,245 | 51.9%646 W · 599 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ad…795cbacked Under | 71c | 67.01$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.58 | 242 | 59.9%145 W · 97 L | -12.1wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc076…d987backed Under | 66c | 47.27$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.27 | 191 | 41.9%80 W · 111 L | -13.9wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb91c…ed66backed Under | 65c | 19.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 578 | 45.7%264 W · 314 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5b…1578backed Under | 64c | 16.09$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 255 | 50.6%129 W · 126 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26c2…0cdfbacked Under | 65c | 15.28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 743 | 46.3%344 W · 399 L | -28.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Sinner vs. Medvedev: Match O/U 21.5this page
- Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Daniil MedvedevJannik Sinner won
- Jannik Sinner vs. Daniil Medvedev: Total Sets O/U 2.5Over 2.5 won
- Set 1 Winner: Sinner vs MedvedevSinner won
- Set Handicap: Sinner (-1.5) vs Medvedev (+1.5)Medvedev won
- Sinner vs. Medvedev: Match O/U 23.5Over won
- Sinner vs. Medvedev: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Under won
- Sinner vs. Medvedev: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.