Tennis · resolved market
Jannik Sinner vs. Daniil Medvedev: Total Sets O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x33b2df8e0bb356119e67a167f8a6899ae93914b04c9371636f08ba48c313a40d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Over 2.5of Over 2.5, Under 2.5
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,490
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,928
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,490 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Under 2.5 | 1c | 2,290$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.52 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb416…4588backed Over 2.5 | 25c | 2,016$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,516 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc83f…23e4backed Under 2.5 | 75c | 1,916$1,437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,437 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +201.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d0…d9e8backed Over 2.5 | 24c | 1,500$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,144.99 | 154 | 47.4%73 W · 81 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf5e…95e3backed Under 2.5 | 76c | 718.15$546 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$545.79 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under 2.5 | 54c | 599.77$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.08 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99d7…6435backed Over 2.5 | 15c | 500$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425 | 1,148 | 53%608 W · 540 L | +25.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9825…9ffcbacked Over 2.5 | 21c | 463.04$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.04 | 499 | 43.5%217 W · 282 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2f…9123backed Under 2.5 | 76c | 394.74$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 316 | 56.3%178 W · 138 L | +19.8wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b2d…f0edbacked Over 2.5 | 55c | 336.26$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.6 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1252…e6e0backed Over 2.5 | 53c | 300$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142 | 72 | 56.9%41 W · 31 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc470…c792backed Over 2.5 | 36c | 276.92$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.92 | 1,504 | 35.1%528 W · 976 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26be…805fbacked Under 2.5 | 76c | 263.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 365 | 48.2%176 W · 189 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65af…df77backed Under 2.5 | 79c | 253.23$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | -12.7wins | -0.15per pick | 62cpaid | -25%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1420…9daabacked Under 2.5 | 42c | 220$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.4 | 142 | 43%61 W · 81 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3354…5042backed Under 2.5 | 77c | 211.62$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.99 | 173 | 59.5%103 W · 70 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over 2.5 | 56c | 190.34$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.74 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98af…b216backed Under 2.5 | 7c | 176$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 176 | 17%30 W · 146 L | -15.9wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd4b6…41b4backed Under 2.5 | 62c | 156.94$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | -4.6wins | -0.09per pick | 60cpaid | -15%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x95a3…cc1bbacked Over 2.5 | 57c | 139.66$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.66 | 142 | 45.8%65 W · 77 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Over 2.5 | 20c | 125.28$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.23 | 3,424 | 39.1%1,338 W · 2,086 L | -12.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce5…a07fbacked Under 2.5 | 60c | 118.46$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.08 | 418 | 50%209 W · 209 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc076…d987backed Under 2.5 | 72c | 118.46$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.72 | 191 | 41.9%80 W · 111 L | -13.9wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c11…ef93backed Over 2.5 | 22c | 100$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Over 2.5 | 21c | 100$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79 | 1,510 | 37.7%569 W · 941 L | +24.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7e…70ecbacked Over 2.5 | 21c | 77.57$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.3 | 1,001 | 45.4%454 W · 547 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec6…698bbacked Over 2.5 | 67c | 70.84$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.72 | 84 | 73.8%62 W · 22 L | +24.4wins | +0.29per pick | 45cpaid | +68.2%equal weight | 75+0.22 edge/pick |
| 0x7baa…03b7backed Over 2.5 | 61c | 59.59$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.24 | 163 | 58.9%96 W · 67 L | +12.4wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over 2.5 | 61c | 53.03$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.68 | 2,044 | 53.8%1,100 W · 944 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e2c…359fbacked Over 2.5 | 60c | 51.7$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.68 | 93 | 60.2%56 W · 37 L | +10.1wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Over 2.5 | 21c | 50.4$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.95 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Over 2.5 | 61c | 49.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.18 | 3,220 | 40.5%1,305 W · 1,915 L | +28.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa1…a420backed Over 2.5 | 57c | 47.37$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.37 | 512 | 36.5%187 W · 325 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…3813backed Under 2.5 | 77c | 43.52$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.51 | 1,168 | 49.1%573 W · 595 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cdb…529dbacked Over 2.5 | 48c | 37.24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.24 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Under 2.5 | 37c | 33.87$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 156 | 5.8%9 W · 147 L | -32.4wins | -0.21per pick | 27cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 30-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x37f1…19a0backed Over 2.5 | 57c | 29.49$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.68 | 517 | 36.9%191 W · 326 L | -39.1wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa11f…1252backed Under 2.5 | 41c | 29.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 87 | 57.5%50 W · 37 L | +6.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7322…9f57backed Under 2.5 | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1208…0160backed Over 2.5 | 56c | 23.29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.29 | 309 | 31.1%96 W · 213 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under 2.5 | 76c | 20.83$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.83 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…4f82backed Over 2.5 | 61c | 20.26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 236 | 53.4%126 W · 110 L | +8.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd78e…6421backed Under 2.5 | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 935 | 57.3%536 W · 399 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb4…9cb8backed Under 2.5 | 77c | 18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 68 | 52.9%36 W · 32 L | +6.9wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8634…1b5bbacked Under 2.5 | 77c | 16.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.8wins | -0.26per pick | 53cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1f64…3633backed Under 2.5 | 77c | 15.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 992 | 49.4%490 W · 502 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Jannik Sinner vs. Daniil Medvedev: Total Sets O/U 2.5this page
- Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Daniil MedvedevJannik Sinner won
- Set 1 Winner: Sinner vs MedvedevSinner won
- Set Handicap: Sinner (-1.5) vs Medvedev (+1.5)Medvedev won
- Sinner vs. Medvedev: Match O/U 21.5Over won
- Sinner vs. Medvedev: Match O/U 23.5Over won
- Sinner vs. Medvedev: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Under won
- Sinner vs. Medvedev: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.