CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs STATE (BO3) - United21 Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3ade87534ea8173f97714e49aa1e628ecf3bdc3181403858620863a51b6383fa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Infiniteof Infinite, STATE
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,383
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,383 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xda17…abc5backed Infinite | 55c | 1,264$696 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$568.1 | 93 | 53.8%50 W · 43 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Infinite | 59c | 1,151$680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470.5 | 2,326 | 55.7%1,296 W · 1,030 L | +44.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed STATE | 41c | 828$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.2 | 5,876 | 37.7%2,213 W · 3,663 L | +71.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c7d…3c88backed STATE | 40c | 644$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked STATE | 42c | 642.97$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.17 | 167 | 38.9%65 W · 102 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c5a…acc3backed STATE | 40c | 500.09$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.04 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -5.2wins | -0.20per pick | 55cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x06ab…b7e5backed Infinite | 59c | 500$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.16per pick | 41cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0000…e981backed STATE | 40c | 428$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x356c…01eebacked Infinite | 60c | 385$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Infinite | 77c | 320$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.2 | 7,990 | 50.4%4,029 W · 3,961 L | +180.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc70…fc46backed Infinite | 60c | 257.33$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.93 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +97%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51c0…e106backed Infinite | 60c | 257$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +97%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d1f…a252backed STATE | 41c | 243.9$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 150 | 33.3%50 W · 100 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63c6…a5c9backed STATE | 46c | 216.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.81 | 231 | 46.3%107 W · 124 L | +12.8wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf3b…0375backed STATE | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 392 | 45.9%180 W · 212 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd7…5f46backed Infinite | 60c | 171$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c77…6747backed STATE | 36c | 129.04$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.81 | 112 | 30.4%34 W · 78 L | -16.7wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8359…5944backed STATE | 22c | 123.95$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.27 | 700 | 32%224 W · 476 L | -45.8wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbcf4…a399backed STATE | 38c | 122.11$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.35 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3735…3d9dbacked STATE | 23c | 119.77$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.55 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed STATE | 27c | 89.26$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.21 | 6,501 | 42.9%2,791 W · 3,710 L | -79.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b3e…5bc0backed STATE | 56c | 89.22$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.04 | 153 | 58.2%89 W · 64 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8f…870ebacked Infinite | 52c | 60$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 225 | 42.7%96 W · 129 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29b5…cc6cbacked STATE | 48c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 5,095 | 55.1%2,805 W · 2,290 L | +119.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfec3…c22cbacked STATE | 56c | 58.85$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Infinite | 73c | 54.19$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.63 | 421 | 49.6%209 W · 212 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0189…cab8backed Infinite | 78c | 51.28$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e32…0502backed STATE | 53c | 46.75$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…0f05backed STATE | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Infinite | 60c | 46$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 750 | 48.4%363 W · 387 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f8e…ca2ebacked Infinite | 60c | 45.6$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.24 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa74a…4893backed STATE | 30c | 37.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 1,216 | 40.1%488 W · 728 L | -65.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x279b…4cddbacked STATE | 30c | 37.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ef…77e7backed Infinite | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed STATE | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 527 | 55.8%294 W · 233 L | +23.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70f2…f490backed Infinite | 56c | 28.32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.32 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6886…2ed8backed Infinite | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 73cpaid | +6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: Infinite vs STATE (BO3) - United21 Playoffsthis page
- Counter-Strike: Infinite vs STATE - Map 1 WinnerInfinite won
- Counter-Strike: Infinite vs STATE - Map 2 WinnerInfinite won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.