College Football · resolved market
Spread: Notre Dame (-26.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3ae7ccc37ece27621e5f4685ccf6bf14f9c7207a38039120bba68539aa8fe1d1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Notre Dameof Notre Dame, Navy
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,277
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,277
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,277 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Navy | 47c | 15,000$7,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,050 | 272 | 46%125 W · 147 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Notre Dame | 53c | 4,970$2,634 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,335.9 | 859 | 47.7%410 W · 449 L | +14.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Notre Dame | 54c | 4,958$2,668 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,289.76 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Notre Dame | 53c | 3,400$1,802 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,598 | 176 | 55.1%97 W · 79 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Notre Dame | 53c | 2,851$1,511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,339.85 | 756 | 51.9%392 W · 364 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3158…d469backed Notre Dame | 51c | 2,591$1,321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,269.5 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Navy | 49c | 1,795$880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$879.55 | 87 | 52.9%46 W · 41 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb2…a656backed Navy | 45c | 999.99$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 115 | 40%46 W · 69 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e52…9434backed Navy | 44c | 681.82$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Navy | 49c | 295.92$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 302 | 53%160 W · 142 L | +10.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Notre Dame | 53c | 278.32$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.81 | 384 | 50.5%194 W · 190 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Notre Dame | 53c | 250$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.5 | 134 | 50.7%68 W · 66 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9844…5e6cbacked Navy | 60c | 212.5$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.95 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Notre Dame | 40c | 212.5$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.95 | 276 | 48.9%135 W · 141 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Navy | 49c | 205$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.45 | 568 | 44.5%253 W · 315 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9977…ad57backed Navy | 49c | 150$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.5 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b23…39fdbacked Navy | 49c | 144.9$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7d…c01abacked Navy | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +3.4wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3513…c19dbacked Notre Dame | 53c | 21.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -3.7wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Notre Dame (-26.5)this page
- Navy vs. Notre DameNotre Dame won
- Navy vs. Notre Dame: 1H MoneylineNotre Dame won
- Navy vs. Notre Dame: O/U 55.5Over won
- Spread: Notre Dame (-27.5)Notre Dame won
- Spread: Notre Dame (-28.5)Notre Dame won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.