College Football · resolved market
Navy vs. Notre Dame
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x39e1a6a0eaad4b9dc238fee00375b62a308e47488d337697cece456fa7399dcf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Notre Dameof Navy, Notre Dame
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $136,537
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $138,647
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $136,537 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x45c3…42f9backed Navy | 4c | 28,526$1,230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,230 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23e5…d41fbacked Navy | 3c | 14,750$431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431.3 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00d6…aa44backed Navy | 3c | 10,268$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.68 | 127 | 18.9%24 W · 103 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Navy | 5c | 9,607$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.82 | 684 | 40.8%279 W · 405 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Navy | 4c | 5,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 191 | 20.9%40 W · 151 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce48…e4bdbacked Navy | 4c | 4,757$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Navy | 5c | 4,581$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.41 | 648 | 41.2%267 W · 381 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…1778backed Navy | 5c | 3,404$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd40…73a2backed Navy | 6c | 3,397$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 112 | 21.4%24 W · 88 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Navy | 2c | 2,300$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 756 | 51.9%392 W · 364 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87ea…f625backed Navy | 4c | 2,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +70.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb40…a284backed Navy | 6c | 1,800$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 345 | 29.9%103 W · 242 L | -21.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Navy | 2c | 1,789$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.68 | 190 | 51.6%98 W · 92 L | +8.9wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Navy | 3c | 1,489$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.06 | 224 | 4%9 W · 215 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfca…68fcbacked Navy | 6c | 1,200$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.98 | 471 | 31.4%148 W · 323 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x162b…06d8backed Navy | 4c | 1,075$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.29 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked Navy | 6c | 1,005$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.96 | 50 | 28%14 W · 36 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Navy | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 215 | 38.6%83 W · 132 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Navy | 4c | 999.94$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 134 | 17.2%23 W · 111 L | -8.3wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce91…9c9fbacked Navy | 3c | 747.37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x190a…b170backed Navy | 5c | 600.22$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.33 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Navy | 4c | 470.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 571 | 44.7%255 W · 316 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd87…dd8bbacked Navy | 3c | 450$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 44 | 11.4%5 W · 39 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa805…83dcbacked Navy | 5c | 450$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 102 | 20.6%21 W · 81 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8639…fb86backed Navy | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Navy | 5c | 399.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 244 | 36.9%90 W · 154 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Navy | 5c | 377.73$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.97 | 1,090 | 41.7%455 W · 635 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3db3…09a3backed Navy | 6c | 363.63$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.82 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Navy | 4c | 354.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 422 | 44.5%188 W · 234 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f82…d6abbacked Navy | 4c | 333.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 70 | 48.6%34 W · 36 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe930…99aebacked Navy | 5c | 304.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb950…4dd4backed Navy | 6c | 254.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf33…261fbacked Navy | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Navy | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 184 | 16.8%31 W · 153 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88e2…1956backed Navy | 6c | 181.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 100 | 30%30 W · 70 L | -10.5wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Navy vs. Notre Damethis page
- Navy vs. Notre Dame: 1H MoneylineNotre Dame won
- Navy vs. Notre Dame: O/U 55.5Over won
- Spread: Notre Dame (-26.5)Notre Dame won
- Spread: Notre Dame (-27.5)Notre Dame won
- Spread: Notre Dame (-28.5)Notre Dame won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.