Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 14°C on May 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3b0eeb22d9126f981779661fb1b4e6b0a8b47b0cebe2502840a7c52add55a16d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,175
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,287
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,175 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked No | 80c | 399.69$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.1 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 22c | 268.78$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.15 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked No | 67c | 250.96$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.82 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdbff…06d2backed Yes | 36c | 231.13$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.07 | 99 | 32.3%32 W · 67 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 31c | 211.99$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.43 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd4c…8bebbacked Yes | 63c | 171.68$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.8 | 107 | 80.4%86 W · 21 L | +21.9wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 68+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 68c | 154.05$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.06 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 33c | 118.41$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.94 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 36c | 87.97$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.88 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 57c | 85.63$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.63 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xf899…0759backed Yes | 39c | 82.1$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.06 | 267 | 38.6%103 W · 164 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 29c | 79.4$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.06 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 44c | 76.12$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.14 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 66c | 71.38$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5278…5306backed Yes | 44c | 67.97$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 149 | 41.6%62 W · 87 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4653…fc2bbacked No | 40c | 56.27$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.55 | 70 | 61.4%43 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1297…1fb0backed Yes | 59c | 55.59$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.81 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x726e…aafbbacked No | 69c | 53.35$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.54 | 232 | 69%160 W · 72 L | +23.7wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 31c | 51.83$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed No | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 68c | 43.83$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.83 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2e…d8a9backed No | 68c | 40.65$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.01 | 79 | 79.7%63 W · 16 L | +9.4wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0b42…9fc4backed Yes | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2298…9f33backed No | 67c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.4 | 351 | 68.4%240 W · 111 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2a…3ca5backed Yes | 34c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c0…5443backed Yes | 36c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 187 | 40.6%76 W · 111 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 39.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.59 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 57c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.02 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6086…a5f9backed No | 47c | 31.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 310 | 50.3%156 W · 154 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad0d…8f33backed No | 77c | 31$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.13 | 121 | 74.4%90 W · 31 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 43c | 30.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1153…707fbacked Yes | 56c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.82 | 44 | 75%33 W · 11 L | +5.9wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 38c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.52 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 37c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed Yes | 39c | 28.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 348 | 46.6%162 W · 186 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 42c | 26.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.57 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 49c | 26.78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cd6…092abacked No | 61c | 26.08$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.09 | 247 | 36%89 W · 158 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf3f…2f4cbacked Yes | 47c | 26.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked No | 67c | 26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0479…8cbbbacked Yes | 40c | 25.41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 65c | 25.26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 63c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 78c | 19.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 56c | 19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 59c | 17.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.09 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 14°C on May 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 11°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 12°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 13°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on May 12?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C or higher on May 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.