Bundesliga · resolved market
Will Dortmund beat Leverkusen?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3b26b01e53157c7986274c4409a2c1aba902266e6f09541fa3a610fa4e497074
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,698
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,708
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,698 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0aaa…77b7backed Yes | 40c | 4,953$1,981 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,971.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked No | 60c | 4,836$2,902 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,901.89 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe0…37adbacked Yes | 39c | 850$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$518.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe43…3e68backed No | 60c | 765$459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3547…7064backed Yes | 39c | 715$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8017…d7debacked Yes | 40c | 715$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$429 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +96.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8816…629cbacked Yes | 40c | 665$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffb6…9496backed No | 61c | 635$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a1d…9a9bbacked No | 61c | 540$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65e9…177cbacked Yes | 40c | 300$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6332…6128backed No | 62c | 275.16$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe0…511dbacked No | 61c | 245$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fed…3553backed No | 60c | 245$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b0…cdd9backed Yes | 39c | 230$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.3 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +228.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8050…49ffbacked Yes | 40c | 230$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed No | 64c | 154.01$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.73 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0bd…2b47backed No | 60c | 150$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd112…c648backed No | 61c | 150$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7846…14cabacked No | 60c | 145$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45a9…628fbacked No | 61c | 145$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa890…1c30backed No | 61c | 145$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0e…47c8backed Yes | 39c | 140$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +113%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x094e…a459backed No | 60c | 125$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1677…1126backed Yes | 38c | 117.37$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.77 | 142 | 54.2%77 W · 65 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f12…89eabacked No | 60c | 110$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae36…8fb5backed Yes | 79c | 89.67$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.39 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +136.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x94bb…8cd5backed Yes | 56c | 85.63$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.93 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +74.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Yes | 38c | 82.19$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.96 | 237 | 45.6%108 W · 129 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed61…9aa3backed Yes | 31c | 72$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.68 | 150 | 64%96 W · 54 L | +25.0wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x612f…aa53backed No | 60c | 67.5$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11ce…814abacked Yes | 71c | 62.24$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x056a…611fbacked Yes | 41c | 60.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.98 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x186d…07f2backed No | 61c | 55$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed No | 59c | 51$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.09 | 109 | 42.2%46 W · 63 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fa…5e89backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Yes | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.78 | 188 | 40.4%76 W · 112 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…4e48backed No | 48c | 36.68$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.45 | 110 | 65.5%72 W · 38 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked No | 38c | 35.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 148 | 46.6%69 W · 79 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba2…527dbacked Yes | 39c | 33.23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91b5…8399backed Yes | 41c | 27.73$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d97…2751backed No | 60c | 26.88$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca6f…fc19backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.68per pick | 33cpaid | +225%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb5df…15edbacked No | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 60cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c2b…93b3backed No | 61c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48dd…1391backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Dortmund beat Leverkusen?this page
- Will Leverkusen beat Dortmund?No won
- Will Leverkusen vs. Dortmund end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.