La Liga · resolved market
Will Valencia win on 2025-09-14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3b2a232e323eba7d1f742f3c7cb6b4d90a8757e321989ac577dc29fe2ec2b421
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $71,891
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $82,404
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $71,891 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x37e4…c991backed Yes | 10c | 25,370$2,537 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,536.98 | 89 | 40.4%36 W · 53 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Yes | 9c | 6,056$545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$544.63 | 125 | 51.2%64 W · 61 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Yes | 9c | 3,257$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.14 | 295 | 45.4%134 W · 161 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x094d…c6abbacked Yes | 8c | 2,500$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed Yes | 8c | 1,197$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.79 | 56 | 16.1%9 W · 47 L | -5.5wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -60%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbe23…4489backed Yes | 9c | 1,176$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.74 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed Yes | 9c | 1,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 256 | 48.4%124 W · 132 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf438…de5dbacked Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20c7…50c9backed Yes | 12c | 966.67$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 63 | 44.4%28 W · 35 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf80b…fa00backed Yes | 10c | 790.99$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.1 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c53…c9b0backed Yes | 11c | 581.64$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.98 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf72…a19fbacked Yes | 9c | 555.56$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Yes | 7c | 512.8$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.9 | 96 | 25%24 W · 72 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c46…be29backed Yes | 12c | 500$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +5.1wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2798…3d88backed Yes | 8c | 500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 3c | 470.61$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 3,449 | 43%1,484 W · 1,965 L | +32.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3256…830cbacked Yes | 10c | 400$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed Yes | 8c | 399.67$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.65 | 146 | 21.9%32 W · 114 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1166…a8e1backed Yes | 10c | 360$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd269…8055backed Yes | 10c | 321.8$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.18 | 64 | 26.6%17 W · 47 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51f7…ae1fbacked Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b12…30d8backed Yes | 11c | 175.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +3.1wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Yes | 8c | 150$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 127 | 22.8%29 W · 98 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x548e…3834backed Yes | 10c | 149.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe31a…adffbacked Yes | 12c | 108.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef9…7a60backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd2…b035backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 33 | 9.1%3 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -56%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ac…27a7backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x844a…ba1abacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Valencia win on 2025-09-14?this page
- Will Barcelona vs. Valencia end in a draw?No won
- Will Barcelona win on 2025-09-14?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.