Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 21°C on March 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3b6b07a628771157980a64681d53acd2cd21be0f68c10fea6c20c4296c35dab6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,482
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,531
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,482 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 8c | 1,295$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.85 | 6,854 | 39.4%2,698 W · 4,156 L | +266.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 32c | 261.21$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.57 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5018…84fbbacked Yes | 39c | 226.29$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.74 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0020…16b9backed No | 59c | 162.3$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.24 | 185 | 33%61 W · 124 L | -18.2wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb576…525bbacked Yes | 41c | 92.83$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.89 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 26c | 89.02$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.15 | 3,916 | 23.2%910 W · 3,006 L | +124.9wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 74c | 83.96$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6958…2a41backed Yes | 18c | 80.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 18c | 79.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c21…3fb9backed No | 48c | 78$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.35 | 132 | 60.6%80 W · 52 L | +14.6wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5644…ecbbbacked Yes | 45c | 67.84$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.35 | 237 | 38%90 W · 147 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 66c | 63$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.33 | 9,885 | 45.9%4,540 W · 5,345 L | -302.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 29c | 57.87$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.03 | 4,014 | 35.6%1,428 W · 2,586 L | +41.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…23d9backed No | 72c | 54$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.12 | 327 | 60.6%198 W · 129 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43f2…09a5backed Yes | 38c | 52.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 81 | 24.7%20 W · 61 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 20c | 52.14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 7,231 | 9.3%675 W · 6,556 L | -1,115.6wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ff…5c2abacked Yes | 29c | 51.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46b3…d3debacked Yes | 21c | 50.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 244 | 14.3%35 W · 209 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40fd…9f9fbacked Yes | 42c | 47.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 111 | 45%50 W · 61 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 67c | 44.78$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.79 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ca3…3efcbacked Yes | 41c | 44.58$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.37 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 58c | 43.19$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.19 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed No | 70c | 42.93$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.93 | 651 | 60.4%393 W · 258 L | +92.1wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 59c | 42.35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.36 | 7,564 | 37.5%2,840 W · 4,724 L | +95.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked No | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.14 | 386 | 70.2%271 W · 115 L | +64.1wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2b…2cd8backed No | 76c | 39.41$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5f…867dbacked No | 68c | 36.75$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 114 | 49.1%56 W · 58 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7515…0f90backed No | 62c | 34.6$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.13 | 159 | 54.7%87 W · 72 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde90…dadabacked No | 47c | 33.89$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.9 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e22…1b31backed No | 45c | 33.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.08 | 76 | 75%57 W · 19 L | +11.8wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fd…5c4fbacked Yes | 37c | 32.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 147 | 45.6%67 W · 80 L | -11.2wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0c5a…2a29backed Yes | 35c | 31.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | -6.1wins | -0.23per pick | 35cpaid | -71%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x481c…2325backed No | 49c | 30.63$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.65 | 123 | 65%80 W · 43 L | +12.2wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed5…72a6backed No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 101 | 54.5%55 W · 46 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 56c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.83 | 512 | 47.1%241 W · 271 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e1…6579backed Yes | 56c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa9…a6c9backed Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1546…778bbacked Yes | 60c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 356 | 29.8%106 W · 250 L | -18.1wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x376a…d270backed No | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 48 | 89.6%43 W · 5 L | +14.9wins | +0.31per pick | 59cpaid | +78%equal weight | 73+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 42c | 28.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x406f…327dbacked Yes | 59c | 25.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -3.7wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…54abbacked No | 70c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf88b…0ed2backed No | 67c | 24.5$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.09 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd2…8772backed Yes | 57c | 24.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 43c | 24.28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 550 | 25.3%139 W · 411 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -33%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66d5…147abacked No | 60c | 22.97$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x192a…b0a6backed No | 69c | 20.9$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 201 | 50.7%102 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c1…1bebbacked Yes | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 276 | 48.6%134 W · 142 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4be0…c37dbacked No | 64c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 190 | 58.9%112 W · 78 L | -8.2wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 70c | 16.08$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.86 | 2,397 | 79.5%1,906 W · 491 L | +101.5wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1203…3947backed No | 70c | 15.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.59 | 156 | 39.7%62 W · 94 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc377…593fbacked No | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.7 | 139 | 64%89 W · 50 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 21°C on March 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 14°C or below on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 15°C on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 18°C on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 19°C on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 20°C on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 22°C on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 23°C on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C or higher on March 27?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.