Stocks · resolved market
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $390 on April 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3b6d05b792355b5a854c3b6b780d2336a9e8056fbd820ad026c2807ce5a56b20
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,679
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,430
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,679 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb6ca…48a9backed No | 5c | 1,350$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 282 | 61%172 W · 110 L | +42.5wins | +0.15per pick | 46cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x1755…5aacbacked No | 21c | 686.3$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.33 | 1,326 | 46.9%622 W · 704 L | +41.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2d2…1615backed No | 3c | 639.21$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.59 | 145 | 21.4%31 W · 114 L | +8.3wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | +18%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x982a…6851backed Yes | 69c | 546.03$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.41 | 849 | 46.1%391 W · 458 L | +51.9wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x38d8…ea7cbacked Yes | 75c | 531.49$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.77 | 1,783 | 49%874 W · 909 L | +142.6wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 22c | 414.82$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.92 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -68.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6040…4c57backed Yes | 73c | 409.06$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.98 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b8…0d21backed No | 28c | 160.55$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.04 | 63 | 54%34 W · 29 L | +5.9wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x36f9…5445backed No | 40c | 59.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6119…346ebacked No | 35c | 54.1$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab88…3761backed Yes | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 51 | 84.3%43 W · 8 L | +8.4wins | +0.16per pick | 68cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe7…3fefbacked Yes | 75c | 38.12$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x933c…a8c6backed Yes | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 131 | 47.3%62 W · 69 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $390 on April 20?this page
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $370 on April 20?Yes won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $380 on April 20?Yes won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $400 on April 20?No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $410 on April 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.