Other European Leagues · resolved market
Rio Ave FC vs. FC Arouca: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3b720dbccacdb9ef281e5ae7a0c18dad3a83d3d581ace083a28bd5c348b1f410
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,029
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,594
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,029 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x33a7…960dbacked Over | 25c | 2,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,500 | 183 | 35%64 W · 119 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 71c | 1,763$1,259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,258.91 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e16…a795backed Under | 52c | 953.61$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.7wins | -0.44per pick | 61cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8dee…412bbacked Over | 49c | 820.98$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$419.91 | 88 | 44.3%39 W · 49 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 43c | 613.51$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.32 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dad…a040backed Over | 46c | 358.7$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.7 | 88 | 73.9%65 W · 23 L | +8.0wins | +0.09per pick | 65cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 48c | 288.02$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.08 | 2,334 | 46.8%1,093 W · 1,241 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…969bbacked Under | 52c | 200$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 210 | 44.8%94 W · 116 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcf…402abacked Over | 25c | 200$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 167 | 25.7%43 W · 124 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 31c | 173.03$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.89 | 648 | 42%272 W · 376 L | -12.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 47c | 162.59$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.17 | 1,098 | 50.5%554 W · 544 L | -36.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x470e…07c0backed Over | 48c | 133$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.16 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafdd…ae76backed Under | 56c | 88.25$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc897…f3b3backed Over | 49c | 69.39$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.39 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 58c | 61.12$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.48 | 2,309 | 42.8%988 W · 1,321 L | -41.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 17c | 60$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 598 | 55.5%332 W · 266 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19fe…dbd8backed Under | 52c | 32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 67cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8358…956bbacked Under | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0919…fcbcbacked Under | 56c | 26.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9942…5b7dbacked Under | 52c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 66cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05ba…2117backed Under | 52c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf86a…9ed1backed Under | 52c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Rio Ave FC vs. FC Arouca: O/U 2.5this page
- Rio Ave FC vs. FC Arouca: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Rio Ave FC vs. FC Arouca: O/U 1.5Over won
- Rio Ave FC vs. FC Arouca: O/U 3.5Under won
- Rio Ave FC vs. FC Arouca: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.