Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Pipsqueak+4 vs Spirit Academy (BO3)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3bb62dc0ee637a0f05aa95df881e65337d0c9e244c01723771489520c62570fd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pipsqueak+4of Pipsqueak+4, Spirit Academy
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,142
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,853
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,142 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9df4…8ca6backed Spirit Academy | 14c | 4,800$672 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$672 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ecb…a693backed Spirit Academy | 1c | 4,394$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.39 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -80.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Spirit Academy | 1c | 4,021$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.32 | 616 | 9.7%60 W · 556 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Spirit Academy | 4c | 1,255$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.26 | 592 | 50.5%299 W · 293 L | -20.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7951…bb41backed Spirit Academy | 14c | 1,012$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.49 | 647 | 44.4%287 W · 360 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3818…7713backed Spirit Academy | 14c | 1,000$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x490a…1d4bbacked Spirit Academy | 10c | 821.43$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.14 | 79 | 35.4%28 W · 51 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Spirit Academy | 8c | 792$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.23 | 869 | 49%426 W · 443 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Spirit Academy | 5c | 757.34$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 738 | 41.7%308 W · 430 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf987…6ea7backed Spirit Academy | 6c | 267.43$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.71 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa226…5092backed Spirit Academy | 25c | 194.29$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.29 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b2b…5752backed Spirit Academy | 15c | 133.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd277…73febacked Pipsqueak+4 | 70c | 114.29$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.29 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16bc…110bbacked Spirit Academy | 19c | 103.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b64…eaf4backed Pipsqueak+4 | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 177 | 40.7%72 W · 105 L | -11.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99fe…b61cbacked Spirit Academy | 17c | 99.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0155…a6ffbacked Spirit Academy | 22c | 73.86$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | +93.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Pipsqueak+4 vs Spirit Academy (BO3)this page
- Dota 2: Pipsqueak+4 vs Spirit Academy - Game 1 Winner Pipsqueak+4 won
- Dota 2: Pipsqueak+4 vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 Winner Pipsqueak+4 won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.