La Liga · resolved market
UD Almería vs. Cultural y Deportiva Leonesa: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3bc27661c013e1cfa86882e10a8520c5331ca9fcaa017bddf11784d4cb779cc5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,688
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,688 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 45c | 5,318$2,393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,392.89 | 691 | 42.5%294 W · 397 L | -21.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05e3…4b87backed Over | 55c | 5,263$2,895 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,368.35 | 200 | 54%108 W · 92 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 50c | 1,712$850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$850.02 | 4,740 | 47%2,230 W · 2,510 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Over | 43c | 714.14$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.11 | 84 | 33.3%28 W · 56 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 58c | 655.17$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.17 | 95 | 64.2%61 W · 34 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ab1…875bbacked Under | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd98f…4273backed Under | 10c | 445.4$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.54 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…22a0backed Under | 10c | 400$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | +83.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 42c | 346.95$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.51 | 2,343 | 48.5%1,137 W · 1,206 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…30fcbacked Under | 66c | 303.03$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4306…618abacked Over | 59c | 301.69$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.69 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 44c | 297.95$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.45 | 3,449 | 43%1,484 W · 1,965 L | +32.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 42c | 269.37$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.94 | 890 | 50%445 W · 445 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 42c | 249.96$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.98 | 1,081 | 50.6%547 W · 534 L | +11.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf800…bdbabacked Under | 41c | 200$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 116 | 36.2%42 W · 74 L | -7.6wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x86f8…1655backed Over | 34c | 200$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132 | 33 | 72.7%24 W · 9 L | +8.2wins | +0.25per pick | 48cpaid | +65.8%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x41a6…f2e3backed Over | 58c | 195.54$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.13 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5773…ac11backed Under | 42c | 169.21$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.07 | 227 | 46.7%106 W · 121 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 59c | 166.1$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.1 | 387 | 48.1%186 W · 201 L | +17.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd9…51d0backed Over | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.73 | 69 | 37.7%26 W · 43 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 42c | 125$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 1,038 | 48.1%499 W · 539 L | +17.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 57c | 114.46$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.22 | 340 | 50%170 W · 170 L | +16.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…8dbebacked Over | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 95 | 49.5%47 W · 48 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2085…dd27backed Over | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac24…576ebacked Over | 57c | 61.69$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.29 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -3.3wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x576c…f218backed Over | 57c | 60$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 95 | 71.6%68 W · 27 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…53fabacked Over | 55c | 54.54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56e6…45e9backed Over | 58c | 51.59$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 95 | 60%57 W · 38 L | +5.1wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e3a…4d28backed Under | 42c | 50.62$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.26 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5886…1ab8backed Under | 42c | 50.58$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc770…8dbbbacked Over | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 110 | 66.4%73 W · 37 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 627 | 44.3%278 W · 349 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb342…cc01backed Under | 42c | 47.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb11d…3706backed Under | 42c | 46.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 42c | 42.79$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.97 | 1,566 | 51.6%808 W · 758 L | -8.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Over | 59c | 42.35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.28 | 288 | 47.6%137 W · 151 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0079…b852backed Over | 62c | 40.32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.32 | 31 | 80.6%25 W · 6 L | +6.0wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 42c | 35.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.13 | 243 | 44.4%108 W · 135 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 52c | 22.89$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.97 | 1,798 | 51.4%924 W · 874 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Over | 58c | 20.4$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 118 | 55.9%66 W · 52 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x542c…57a1backed Over | 59c | 19.37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.94 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +108.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- UD Almería vs. Cultural y Deportiva Leonesa: O/U 2.5this page
- Spread: Cultural y Deportiva Leonesa (-1.5)UD Almería won
- Spread: Cultural y Deportiva Leonesa (-2.5)UD Almería won
- Spread: UD Almería (-1.5)UD Almería won
- UD Almería vs. Cultural y Deportiva Leonesa: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- UD Almería vs. Cultural y Deportiva Leonesa: O/U 1.5Over won
- UD Almería vs. Cultural y Deportiva Leonesa: O/U 3.5Under won
- UD Almería vs. Cultural y Deportiva Leonesa: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.