Ligue 1 · resolved market
Olympique Lyonnais vs. FC Nantes: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3bc342b767dd64f3bcad2539c39002bdab74e80c09fd84286421e9ccb534d7b6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,284
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,020
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,284 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 44c | 5,527$2,433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,432.87 | 190 | 55.8%106 W · 84 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 50c | 4,235$2,123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,112.61 | 711 | 40.2%286 W · 425 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 30c | 3,689$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,588.94 | 376 | 38.8%146 W · 230 L | -13.6wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 68c | 3,251$2,218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,217.57 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe398…4ce5backed Under | 70c | 428.57$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 70cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3b…5a53backed Over | 58c | 401.72$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.72 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…969bbacked Over | 24c | 333$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.08 | 68 | 36.8%25 W · 43 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc049…48abbacked Over | 40c | 250$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Over | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 143 | 40.6%58 W · 85 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…e74abacked Over | 56c | 107.14$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.14 | 66 | 48.5%32 W · 34 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 55c | 105.69$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.86 | 626 | 48.6%304 W · 322 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc213…80f7backed Over | 56c | 90.8$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.95 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 51cpaid | -48%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8d…31eabacked Over | 58c | 79.31$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.31 | 232 | 50.9%118 W · 114 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9b…829ebacked Over | 56c | 69.11$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.41 | 70 | 44.3%31 W · 39 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19bc…7d78backed Under | 71c | 60.51$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.73 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -30%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16ce…b3dcbacked Over | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 39 | 69.2%27 W · 12 L | +4.1wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Over | 26c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 56c | 23.73$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.44 | 123 | 39.8%49 W · 74 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5c…b3f2backed Under | 67c | 19.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.94 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Olympique Lyonnais vs. FC Nantes: O/U 2.5this page
- Olympique Lyonnais vs. FC Nantes: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Olympique Lyonnais vs. FC Nantes: O/U 1.5Over won
- Olympique Lyonnais vs. FC Nantes: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: Olympique Lyonnais (-1.5)Olympique Lyonnais won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.