Premier League · resolved market
Will Aston Villa win on 2025-05-18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3bc3e8879ccecbe28bfa1037d635f71ed97c761894eb119030e4070b9629a35e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $176,584
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $176,986
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $176,584 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2efd…be4cbacked Yes | 73c | 58,005$42,344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,661.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb75…098bbacked No | 27c | 58,005$15,661 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,661.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked No | 0c | 50,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 689 | 42.2%291 W · 398 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 0c | 5,144$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.17 | 203 | 7.4%15 W · 188 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38f1…9ff1backed Yes | 74c | 1,177$871 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.02 | 321 | 58.9%189 W · 132 L | +13.6wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked Yes | 72c | 1,036$744 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.81 | 138 | 57.2%79 W · 59 L | +8.6wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fe…b77fbacked No | 26c | 1,000$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 220 | 50%110 W · 110 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6391…bc1cbacked No | 27c | 916.97$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.58 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbde5…9c38backed Yes | 72c | 500$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b2…2171backed Yes | 73c | 340$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.8 | 61 | 47.5%29 W · 32 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5410…9470backed Yes | 73c | 281.76$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.08 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b71…47c1backed No | 27c | 202.94$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x098c…1c67backed No | 26c | 199.98$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 44 | 22.7%10 W · 34 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3435…1913backed No | 27c | 184$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.68 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26ae…97b8backed No | 33c | 167$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.11 | 520 | 60.4%314 W · 206 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x866d…4d7dbacked No | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 43 | 18.6%8 W · 35 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84dc…9c02backed No | 24c | 90$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 49 | 28.6%14 W · 35 L | -7.0wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd306…4320backed No | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 96 | 37.5%36 W · 60 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6281…53afbacked Yes | 75c | 55.96$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.19 | 73 | 39.7%29 W · 44 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b1…efecbacked Yes | 76c | 46.23$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.23per pick | 57cpaid | +40%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b5…53f1backed Yes | 73c | 41.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.24 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +70.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6554…bbd6backed Yes | 73c | 41.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3763…c7a1backed Yes | 73c | 36.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.99 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1677…1126backed Yes | 71c | 32.52$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.43 | 420 | 48.6%204 W · 216 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64e4…2089backed Yes | 74c | 20.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ad…d11dbacked Yes | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda7c…abb2backed Yes | 73c | 16.68$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Aston Villa win on 2025-05-18?this page
- Will Aston Villa vs. Tottenham end in a draw?No won
- Will Tottenham win on 2025-05-18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.